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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1100 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026   
      
   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   The risk for thunderstorms will remain minimal across the U.S. today   
   through tonight.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models indicate that mid-level flow is trending more zonal across   
   the northern mid-latitudes, from the Pacific to the Atlantic.   
   Across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, it appears   
   likely to remain more amplified through this period, with one   
   notable short wave trough forecast to continue digging across the   
   eastern Pacific. Downstream, a lower amplitude short wave trough   
   emerging from the Intermountain West may contribute to further   
   suppression of mid-level ridging as far south as the central Great   
   Plains into middle Mississippi Valley later today through tonight.   
   However, mid-level ridging is likely to be maintained across much of   
   the Gulf Basin and adjacent Gulf Coast, to the north of an   
   increasingly prominent mid-level high forming near the Yucatan   
   Peninsula.  Farther east, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to   
   shift a bit further offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard.   
      
   Beneath this regime, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence across   
   the central Great Plains into Midwest.  This may be accompanied by   
   some low-level moistening off a Gulf boundary layer only slowly   
   modifying in the wake of recent cooling and/or drying.  However,   
   forecast soundings indicate that this moisture return will be capped   
   by pronounced warm and dry layers in the lower through   
   mid-troposphere.   
      
   ...California...   
   Stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent downstream of the   
   digging offshore short wave, which could potentially become   
   supportive of thermodynamic profiles conducive to thunderstorms, may   
   approach the central California coast this morning before slowly   
   shifting southward near, but mostly offshore of coastal areas   
   through the remainder of the period.   
      
   ...Great Basin into Rockies...   
   Guidance continues to suggest that mid-level cooling and forcing for   
   ascent (associated with a short wave perturbation now progressing   
   northeast and east of the southern Sierra Nevada) could contribute   
   to the evolution of thermodynamic profiles at least marginally   
   conducive to convection capable of producing lightning, across the   
   mountains of north central/northeastern Utah this morning into   
   northwestern Colorado/adjacent southern Wyoming later today.   
      
   ...Upper Midwest...   
   Downstream of the short wave emerging from the Great Basin, forecast   
   soundings indicate that steepening lapse rates associated with   
   mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent, coupled with mid-level   
   moisture return, may support a corridor of destabilization rooted   
   generally around the 700 mb layer.  It might not be entirely out of   
   the question that this could support weak convection capable of   
   producing lightning across the southern Minnesota through southern   
   Wisconsin vicinity (and adjacent portions of northern Illinois/Iowa)   
   tonight.  However, probabilities for this still appear below the   
   minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/05/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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