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   ACUS01 KWNS 050055   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 050053   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0653 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026   
      
   Valid 050100Z - 051200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   The risk for thunderstorms will remain generally low across the U.S.   
   through tonight.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Cold mid-level air overspreading the Pacific Coast into   
   Intermountain West, associated with splitting large-scale mid/upper   
   troughing, has contributed to weak conditional instability, based on   
   observed and forecast soundings.  Thermodynamic profiles appear to   
   have become at least potentially marginally conducive to convection   
   capable of producing lightning in a broad swath, across northern and   
   central California through the northern Intermountain Region and   
   Great Basin, as well as across the Pacific Northwest.   
      
   Despite this destabilization, to this point, weak thunderstorm   
   development has been generally negligible.  With the onset of   
   diurnal boundary-layer cooling, this may not change appreciably this   
   evening into the overnight hours.   
      
   However, with the mid-level cold core of one notable short wave   
   perturbation just now beginning to spread inland of Washington and   
   adjacent Oregon coastal areas, mid-level forcing for ascent and   
   cooling might still increase sufficiently to support minimum   
   threshold thunderstorm probabilities tonight.   
      
   Across parts of the southern Sierra Nevada into Great Basin, forcing   
   for ascent associated with a more modest and weakening short wave   
   perturbation could also still support minimum threshold thunderstorm   
   probabilities.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/05/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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