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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0005   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   334 PM EST Sun Jan 04 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Southern CA Coastal Mountains   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 042030Z - 050400Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Narrow squall of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms   
   may produce rainfall rates up to 1"/hr. Given the highly saturated   
   and sensitive soils along the Coastal Range and Santa Ynez   
   mountains, flash flooding and mudslides are possible again this   
   afternoon.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar showed a potent squall line approaching   
   Vandenberg AFB at 20Z moving east ahead of a weakening cold front.   
   Compared to yesterday, PWATs are generally topping out between   
   0.9-1.0" within the squall, a little less than yesterday. However,   
   these values are still above the 90th climatological percentile   
   and RAP mesoanalysis also shows the southern CA coast has >250   
   J/kg of MUCAPE at these storms disposal. In addition, these   
   squalls have upper-level support as the are located beneath the   
   right-entrance region of a 120kt 250mb jet streak located over the   
   central Sierra Nevada. Lastly, 925-700mb winds remain out of the   
   SW and generally between 20-30kts, which is just strong enough and   
   oriented favorably enough to support some upslope enhancement into   
   the Coastal Range and Santa Ynez. With anomalous moisture,   
   sufficient instability, beneficial synoptic-scale ascent, and   
   topographic enhancement, these storms are likely to produce   
   locally heavy rainfall as they move east.   
      
   The soil sensitivities in the region have only grown worse since   
   yesterday. MRMS CREST soil saturation over southern Santa Barbara   
   County is over 85% and most locations within the highlighted   
   at-risk area are over 50%. A recent FFW near Ventura referenced an   
   LSR that mentioned more issues along highway 101 with one vehicle   
   stuck in mud. That band of rainfall produced roughly 1.3" in under   
   3 hours near Red Mountain and prompted flash flooding/mudslide   
   issues. This approaching squall is more potent, however it is also   
   progressive, which should help limit the extent of the flash flood   
   potential. That said, the recent FFW near Ventura captures the   
   most notable concern-- soils and burn scars in the area are highly   
   sensitive and even hourly rates of 0.50-0.75" in an hour could   
   prompt flash flooding and mud slides in the Santa Ynez. Expect   
   rainfall totals to surpass 1" in the mountains which could be   
   enough to trigger more flash flooding in southern Santa Barbara   
   county this afternoon. Given the lingering instability and forcing   
   aloft, additional cells could flare up over the Santa Barbara   
   channel this afternoon and pose a flash flood threat into this   
   evening.   
      
   Mullinax   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!5Qm--u4W-pSVK6xYxIwpTyDdgOjKxMsGhyoJ2zRpUOLE5MDP6Vdh9MaSfyAvfcYSvvwp=   
   xwMHw3UfdSvE1h9YTlIJdRg$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LOX...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   35682058 35402035 35091995 34881962 34761913=20   
               34721859 34521867 34291923 34271965 34241980=20   
               34311997 34412060 34552073 34962083 35222099=20   
               35542098=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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