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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0638 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026   
      
   Valid 041300Z - 051200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible   
   today across parts of central California and the Pacific Northwest   
   into portions of the Great Basin.   
      
   ...Synopsis and Discussion...   
   Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs over the   
   eastern CONUS, one moving through the Northeast and one moving   
   through the eastern Gulf/FL Peninsula. These waves are forecast to   
   continue eastward/southeastward today as the modest upper ridging   
   currently over the central CONUS shifts eastward as well. Some   
   dampening of this ridging is possible as a shortwave trough moves   
   from the northern Rockies through the northern Plains and Upper   
   Midwest. Surface ridging will prevail in the vicinity of these   
   waves, with the associated stable conditions precluding   
   thunderstorms. The only exception is across south FL, where enough   
   low-level moisture will be in place along a weakening frontal   
   boundary to support a thunderstorm or two.   
      
   Upper troughing will gradually deepen over the western CONUS as a   
   series of shortwave troughs progress across the region. First   
   shortwave in this series is forecast to reach the central CA Coast   
   this afternoon before continuing eastward through NV and weakening.   
   Another shortwave is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest Coast   
   this evening. This overall evolution will result in mid-level   
   cooling and persistent forcing for ascent overspreading much of the   
   region today through tonight. Resulting thermodynamic profiles could   
   occasionally become marginally conducive for deeper convection   
   capable of producing lightning.   
      
   ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/04/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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