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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS48 KWNS 040932   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 040931   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026   
      
   Valid 071200Z - 121200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should   
   evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a   
   large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and   
   AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower   
   ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains   
   through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible   
   to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a   
   modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But   
   yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for   
   Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance   
   have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas.   
      
   D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential,   
   despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in   
   areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any   
   appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas   
   from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to   
   shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS   
   members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability   
   remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of   
   cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave   
   impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for   
   a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS   
   to TN Valleys and Deep South.   
      
   ..Grams.. 01/04/2026   
      
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