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   ACUS01 KWNS 031954   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 031952   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0152 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026   
      
   Valid 032000Z - 041200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF   
   THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN   
   OREGON....   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast   
   today. A few severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento   
   and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern   
   California and southwest Oregon.   
      
   ...20z Update Southeast...   
   Overall, only minor changes were made to the prior outlook. Severe   
   and thunder probabilities were cleared west of a cluster of   
   thunderstorms ongoing along the northern Gulf Coast from southern   
   AL/GA into northern FL. Located ahead of a weak cold front, the   
   environment east of these storms is expected gradually become more   
   stable owing to remnant cloud cover/precipitation. Still, 500-1000   
   J/kg of MLCAPE and ~40 kt of deep-layer shear will remain sufficient   
   for occasional stronger/organized updrafts. Isolated hail, damaging   
   gusts or a brief tornado are possible, especially with any more   
   persistent supercell structures able to develop over southern GA and   
   the FL Panhandle.   
      
   ...CA...   
   Several stronger convective elements remain near the coast or just   
   onshore beneath a strengthening shortwave trough over northern CA   
   and southern OR. Cool mid-level temperatures (-25C) and strong   
   frontal forcing will continue to support low-topped storms through   
   this afternoon. Large-low-level hodographs and strong southwesterly   
   flow aloft will support an isolated risk for damaging gusts, and   
   perhaps a brief tornado with any rotating miniature supercell or   
   QLCS structures moving onshore. Storms should weaken as the cold   
   front and upper trough move onshore completely this evening.   
      
   Farther south, strong ascent, from the aforementioned trough, and   
   modest surface heating are supporting weak destabilization over the   
   northern San Joaquin Valley. Favorable low-level hodograph curvature   
   and buoyancy could support an isolated low-topped supercell capable   
   of a brief tornado this afternoon. See the prior outlook for   
   additional info.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 01/03/2026   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026/   
      
   ...Southeast...   
   Multiple shortwave troughs currently over the Mid-South/Lower   
   Mississippi Valley will continue to progress southeastward across   
   the region today. A relatively moist air mass precedes a weak   
   surface low and south/southeastward-advancing front, with a band of   
   scattered convection also a notable pre-frontal factor across   
   northern Florida and far southern Georgia. This convection and weak   
   near-frontal convergence should effectively limit severe potential   
   to its north, while potential severe storm development should be   
   more probable on its western flank across southern Alabama and the   
   Florida Panhandle and eventually other parts of far northern   
   Florida.   
      
   Low-level flow will tend to remain veered ahead of the front,   
   limiting low-level hodograph curvature. Even so, strong mid-level   
   westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across the region, resulting   
   in long hodographs that could support occasional organized updrafts.   
   Primary severe risk will be isolated damaging gusts, although a   
   low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well. Some   
   isolated hail could also occur, particularly with any storms near   
   the surface low over southern Alabama and the western Florida   
   Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening.   
      
   ...Northern/Central California and Southwest Oregon...   
   A shortwave trough will continue to move east-northeastward and   
   inland over the region today. Modestly broken clusters of   
   thunderstorms have somewhat increased offshore this morning, with   
   the lead portion of these storms, including a few low-topped   
   rotating storms, located around 25-50 miles off the far northern   
   California coast as of 16z/8am PST. With a strong deep-layer wind   
   field, a few of these stronger, more organized, and potentially   
   rotating storms could move inland through midday with damaging wind   
   and/or waterspout/brief tornado potential. For additional short-term   
   details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4.   
      
   Additionally, into the afternoon, southerly low-level flow through   
   the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in   
   enough low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell   
   capable of a brief tornado.   
      
   $$   
      
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