TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168226.weather@1:2320/105 2dc11eab   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 031752   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 031752=20   
   GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-031945-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0005   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1152 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026   
      
   Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama...southern   
   Georgia...Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 031752Z - 031945Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Marginal risk for strong to severe wind, hail, and a   
   tornado possible this afternoon.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A broken line of showers and thunderstorms continues   
   across the Florida Peninsula into southern Georgia this afternoon.   
   Largely, this is ongoing on the eastern edge of the better air mass   
   extending across the western Panhandle into southern   
   Alabama/Mississippi/Louisiana.   
      
   Closer to the front ahead of the ejecting wave, new development is   
   ongoing across southern Alabama within the more appreciable   
   instability and deep layer shear overlap. A few stronger echo tops   
   are observed on radar in recent scans with some uptick in lightning   
   activity suggesting a few isolated strong to severe storms may be   
   trying to form. Given environment with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and   
   deep layer shear around 40-45 kts, some risk for transient   
   supercells and stronger cores will be possible. It remains somewhat   
   uncertain how the downstream air mass will recover after morning   
   shower activity. However, some hi-res guidance suggests that the   
   broken line may intensify and or activity to the north near the   
   front may organize and shift southward. The second scenario remains   
   more likely, however, longevity of this severe risk is uncertain as   
   these storms move into the less favorable air mass.   
      
   Overall, some threat for damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado   
   will be possible through the early afternoon. Given uncertainty on   
   duration and coverage, a watch is not anticipated at this time.   
      
   ..Thornton/Guyer.. 01/03/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!94B-8lygfrdw_XspEpZch8Zfu4UUZt88eUAGu0ys-0K1LRlNVDbz-C16Rv7lBO-84gySeHtFQ=   
   PBPR1hrxIL23oCdzBM$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...   
      
   LAT...LON   30108801 30378837 30598854 30978846 31998711 32308482   
               32228335 32058188 31768107 31478100 31268101 30318173   
               29748247 29518419 29668535 29968697 30108801=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 275 300   
   SEEN-BY: 229/307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 280/5003 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101   
   SEEN-BY: 335/364 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848   
   SEEN-BY: 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426