TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168223.weather@1:2320/105 2dc10d8c   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 031639   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 031638   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1038 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026   
      
   Valid 031630Z - 041200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE   
   SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast   
   today. A few severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento   
   and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern   
   California and southwest Oregon.   
      
   ...Southeast...   
   Multiple shortwave troughs currently over the Mid-South/Lower   
   Mississippi Valley will continue to progress southeastward across   
   the region today. A relatively moist air mass precedes a weak   
   surface low and south/southeastward-advancing front, with a band of   
   scattered convection also a notable pre-frontal factor across   
   northern Florida and far southern Georgia. This convection and weak   
   near-frontal convergence should effectively limit severe potential   
   to its north, while potential severe storm development should be   
   more probable on its western flank across southern Alabama and the   
   Florida Panhandle and eventually other parts of far northern   
   Florida.   
      
   Low-level flow will tend to remain veered ahead of the front,   
   limiting low-level hodograph curvature. Even so, strong mid-level   
   westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across the region, resulting   
   in long hodographs that could support occasional organized updrafts.   
   Primary severe risk will be isolated damaging gusts, although a   
   low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well. Some   
   isolated hail could also occur, particularly with any storms near   
   the surface low over southern Alabama and the western Florida   
   Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening.   
      
   ...Northern/Central California and Southwest Oregon...   
   A shortwave trough will continue to move east-northeastward and   
   inland over the region today. Modestly broken clusters of   
   thunderstorms have somewhat increased offshore this morning, with   
   the lead portion of these storms, including a few low-topped   
   rotating storms, located around 25-50 miles off the far northern   
   California coast as of 16z/8am PST. With a strong deep-layer wind   
   field, a few of these stronger, more organized, and potentially   
   rotating storms could move inland through midday with damaging wind   
   and/or waterspout/brief tornado potential. For additional short-term   
   details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4.   
      
   Additionally, into the afternoon, southerly low-level flow through   
   the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in   
   enough low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell   
   capable of a brief tornado.   
      
   ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/03/2026   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 275 300   
   SEEN-BY: 229/307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 280/5003 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101   
   SEEN-BY: 335/364 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848   
   SEEN-BY: 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426