TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168222.weather@1:2320/105 2dc10d76   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 031639   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 031639=20   
   ORZ000-CAZ000-031845-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0004   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1039 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026   
      
   Areas affected...northern California and southern Oregon coast   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 031639Z - 031845Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may increase along the coast   
   through late morning/early afternoon.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection offshore across portions of northern   
   California has shown some uptick in lightning activity over the last   
   hour. In addition, transient weak rotation has been observed on   
   radar. While thermodynamic profiles are generally poor (around 250   
   J/kg or less of MLCAPE), shear is increasing with the increasing   
   upper-level flow with the trough moving closer inland. The VAD   
   profile from BHX (Eureka, CA) shows 0-1 km SRH around 420 m2/s2,   
   with favorable low-level curvature. Some risk for waterspouts and/or   
   a tornado will be possible near the immediate coastline across   
   northern California into far southern Oregon over the next couple of   
   hours. In addition, some risk for strong to severe winds will be   
   possible. This threat should remain limited owing to the poor   
   instability and as such, a watch is not anticipated at this time.   
      
   ..Thornton/Guyer.. 01/03/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!5U3yKw9oml77mA6eIdsPndfVLqYTG0QGMXIvnkzmHVZhKDQtyOsHZd-9UepzZgZNzoRJ7IMLB=   
   jeOmAw29MXMBWuNmTQ$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA...   
      
   LAT...LON   39342389 39912360 40192368 42822401 43852408 43582489   
               43282561 42312600 41472561 40182492 39922480 39562455   
               39422445 39332429 39312409 39332394 39342389=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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