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   ACUS01 KWNS 031241   
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   SPC AC 031240   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0640 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026   
      
   Valid 031300Z - 041200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL   
   CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast   
   today. A few marginally severe storms will also be possible from the   
   Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of   
   northern California and southwest Oregon.   
      
   ...Southeast/Central Gulf Coast...   
   Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing   
   southeastward across northeast TX towards the Lower MS Valley.   
   Expectation is for this wave to continue southeastward through the   
   Lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast before eventually moving off   
   the Southeast coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Surface analysis   
   places a low associated with this wave over east TX, with another   
   low farther east over central AL. A modest stationary front   
   currently extends between these lows. This front will transition to   
   a cold front this morning, progressing southeastward as the surface   
   lows also move southeastward ahead of the approaching shortwave. Mid   
   60s dewpoints are in place ahead of this front from the Upper TX   
   Coast through southern LA into southern MS/AL. Given the presence of   
   the stationary front, this is likely near the northern extent of   
   this greater low-level moisture.   
      
   Diurnal heating will be limited by cloud cover, but the general   
   expectation is for modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching cold   
   front. This buoyancy will support scattered thunderstorm development   
   along the front as it moves through the region. Low-level flow will   
   likely veer ahead of the front, limiting low-level curvature. Even   
   so, strong mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across   
   the region, resulting in long hodographs that could support   
   occasional organized updrafts. Primary severe risk will be isolated   
   damaging gusts, although a low-probability risk for a brief tornado   
   exists as well. Some isolated hail could also occur, particularly   
   with any storms near the surface low over southern AL and the   
   western FL Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening when   
   colder mid-level temperatures are in place.   
      
   ...Northern/Central California into Southwest Oregon...   
   Another shortwave trough is forecast to quickly rotate through the   
   base of the cyclone off the Northwest coast, reaching the northern   
   CA/southern OR coast this afternoon. Deep and robust southwesterly   
   flow is currently in place across much of the region. Some weakening   
   is possible throughout the day, but deep-layer vertical shear should   
   remain more than sufficient for rotating storms. However, very   
   limited buoyancy will temper updraft strength and duration, keeping   
   the overall severe potential low. Greatest chance for damaging gusts   
   is expected with any deeper convection that develops as the primary   
   forcing for ascent spreads into the northern CA and southwest OR   
   coasts this afternoon. Additionally, southerly low-level flow up the   
   Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in enough   
   low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell capable of   
   a brief tornado.   
      
   ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/03/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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