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   MSGID: 168213.weather@1:2320/105 2dc0a96b   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS48 KWNS 030932   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 030931   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0331 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026   
      
   Valid 061200Z - 111200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the   
   South-Central States by late week. Guidance spread remains large   
   with the handling of a lower-latitude shortwave trough that will   
   initially be off the southern CA/Baja CA coast on D4/Tuesday.   
   Non-ECMWF deterministic guidance largely eject this wave quickly   
   east-northeastward into the southern Great Plains by late   
   D5/Wednesday night. The ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and AIGFS maintain a slower   
   and more reasonable scenario of progression through D6/Thursday.   
   This will probably interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from   
   the western Gulf, with some severe potential in a portion of the   
   South-Central States. Spatiotemporal detail differences exist even   
   among the preferred slower guidance and the majority of GEFS/ECENS   
   ML probs remain below 15 percent for Thursday.   
      
   For the broad upper trough over the West, latest EC-AIFS and the   
   ECMWF now depict potential of a negative-tilt evolution compared to   
   prior runs and other guidance. Spread is quite large within the   
   ECENS for both the AI/non-AI, indicative of a poorly predictable   
   pattern for shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough.   
   But with potential for fast mid-level southwesterlies overlapping   
   seasonably rich low-level moisture emanating north from the western   
   Gulf, and some scenarios indicative of cyclogenesis over the central   
   states, a severe area highlight may eventually be warranted on   
   D7/Friday.   
      
   ..Grams.. 01/03/2026   
      
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