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   CAZ000-031800-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0003   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   400 AM EST Sat Jan 03 2026   
      
   Areas affected...The Western Transverse Ranges of Southern   
   California   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely   
      
   Valid 030900Z - 031800Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Flash flooding is likely across the Western Transverse   
   Ranges this morning as rainfall rates to 1 inch/hour lead to flash   
   flooding and landslides, especially around burn scars.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A highly dynamic weather pattern has set up across   
   portions of California. A deep upper level low and associated   
   upper level shortwave are approaching the West Coast. The   
   shortwave is tapping into a moisture plume set up off the coast of   
   Mexico and advecting some deeper tropical moisture towards the   
   coast. PWATs will be increasing to over 1 inch, which is 2.5 sigma   
   above normal for this time of year. Thus, as a series of surface   
   fronts (not shown) approach, the addition of upper level energy   
   from the shortwave and abnormal moisture will allow for rainfall   
   rates to increase to up to 1 inch per hour into the western   
   Transverse Ranges this morning.   
      
   850 mb southerly flow of 20-30 kts will support increasing upslope   
   enhancement of the rainfall, which will support the heavier   
   rainfall locally from Lompoc east through Oxnard, including Santa   
   Barbara. NASA Sport imagery shows soils are above the 90th   
   percentile compared to climatology across the area. Thus, a brief   
   period of heavier rain rates, expected later this morning, should   
   be all that is needed to fully saturate the soils. Additional   
   rainfall from there will quickly convert to runoff. This runoff   
   will fill small streams and creeks, as well as increase the   
   potential for landslides. Downstream flash flooding, particularly   
   below the numerous burn scars in the area, is likely through this   
   morning. The area of heavy rainfall, while progressive, will still   
   be slow to track eastward down the coast. Any one area should see   
   anywhere from 3 to 6 hours of rain, heavy at times, before the   
   plume moves off to the east.   
      
   The latest CAMs guidance suggests that by the time the area of   
   heavy rain arrives into the heart of the Los Angeles basin this   
   afternoon, it should both be weakening and narrowing. Thus, while   
   Los Angeles is expected to pick up some rain later this afternoon,   
   rainfall rates are not expected to be quite as heavy, so impacts   
   should be somewhat limited.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!-sz0p95xYO4NyQz7eawzmC7FC3Xcj-GxL5rzwc8o3o2CAHu5PvVWlLlY6cl-vNBdB_cr=   
   QJlP1sRs0SX0ITy5ulgmzI4$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LOX...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   35572092 35572058 35572025 35462016 35311989=20   
               35091962 34861946 34751915 34641845 34521835=20   
               34121866 34001899 34161953 34392077 35432121=20   
               35492116=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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