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   FOUS30 KWBC 030823   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   323 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE UPSLOPE   
   REGIONS OF THE SIERRA AND THE SHASTA OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   The axis of anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux values...2 to 4+   
   standard deviations above the mean...along and ahead of the inland   
   moving frontal boundary early Saturday will impact the upslope=20   
   areas of the Sierra, northward into the Shasta of northern   
   California and spread through the Transverse Ranges of Southern=20   
   California. The primary change from the previous outlook was to   
   expand the slight risk area along all of the upslope regions of the   
   Sierra and expand it northward into the upslope of the northern CA   
   Shasta Range. HREF and RRFS neighborhood probabilities are high in   
   the slight risk area along the Sierra into the Shasta for 1, 2 and   
   3"+ totals and high along the Transverse Range for 1 and 2"+=20   
   totals day 1. In the slight risk area along the Sierra and Shasta,   
   hourly rainfall totals of .25-.50"+ are possible through the day 1   
   period and along the Transverse Range primarily during the first=20   
   half of day 1. This is resulting in HREF and RRFS probabilities of 3   
   hour precip exceeding 3 hour FFG values being well defined in the   
   upslope area of the Sierra and Shasta through day 1 and over the   
   Transverse Range during the fist half of day 1. Soils remain fairly   
   saturated in the slight risk areas from recent heavy rains at the   
   end of 2025 with runoff issues possible as additional heavy   
   rainfall occurs over these saturated soils.   
      
      
   Oravec   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE   
   NORTHERN SIERRA...   
      
   Additional shortwave energy expected to rotate through the mean   
   trof position along the West coast and inland across California day   
   2. This will support a continued wet showery pattern with=20   
   additional moderate to locally heavy precip totals along much of=20   
   the California coast Ranges and into the upslope of the Sierra. A   
   small slight risk area was introduced in the upslope of the northern   
   Sierra where model consensus is for potential of additional 1 to 2"   
   of rain. While rainfall rates are expected to be less than day 1,   
   generally .10-.25, there will be overlap with the day 1 qpf axis in   
   places with 48 hour totals of 3-6" in the slight risk area. Much=20   
   of the day 2 precip will occur during the first half of day 2. HREF   
   and RRFS 12 hour precip ending 0000 UTC Mon are high for 1 and 2"+   
   totals. Otherwise, no changes made to the broad marginal risk area   
   for much of coastal and northern California.   
      
   Oravec   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL   
   TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   The mean trof position is maintained day 3 off the West coast with   
   model consensus for amplification of a new closed low in the base   
   of the mean trof off the Central to Southern CA coast. The low=20   
   level southerly flow on the east side of this developing closed low   
   will not be as strong as the day 1 and 2 low level south=20   
   southwesterly flow, resulting in 850-700 mb moisture flux values=20   
   only 1 to 1.5 standard deviations above the mean. PW values also=20   
   expected to be lower than day 1 and 2, with anomalies only 1 to=20   
   1.5 standard deviations above the mean. Model consensus is for=20   
   additional .50-1"+ rainfall amounts along the Central to Northern=20   
   CA coast and into the upslope of the Northern Sierra. At the=20   
   moment, these amounts warrant keeping the Excessive Rainfall=20   
   Outlook threat level at marginal for the day 3 period, with no=20   
   significant changes made to the previous outlook.   
      
   Oravec   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!__ygkjPnOmbCloOq5IUua_YtA9w-fwTU_lGiOgnGx8cK=   
   fQanmwSXqHmc5xGZ-D9APdL5ggaqvsCHaFGODZKDsUJsiWU$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!__ygkjPnOmbCloOq5IUua_YtA9w-fwTU_lGiOgnGx8cK=   
   fQanmwSXqHmc5xGZ-D9APdL5ggaqvsCHaFGODZKDTqJDpTE$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!__ygkjPnOmbCloOq5IUua_YtA9w-fwTU_lGiOgnGx8cK=   
   fQanmwSXqHmc5xGZ-D9APdL5ggaqvsCHaFGODZKDnMl4yR8$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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