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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1029 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026   
      
   Valid 021630Z - 031200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.   
      
   ...Southeast States...   
   Multiple shortwave troughs, including across the Mid-South and High   
   Plains early today, will progress east-southeastward toward the   
   region within amplifying flow aloft. This will influence weak   
   cyclogenesis, progressing from northeast Texas toward the   
   ArkLaMiss/Alabama tonight, as a warm/moist sector becomes   
   increasingly established across southeast Louisiana, southern   
   portions of Mississippi/Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle,   
   with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints tonight.   
      
   The potential for isolated elevated thunderstorms will increase late   
   today, and more so tonight regionally. Moderate mid-level flow will   
   extend across the region and vertical shear will be strong enough to   
   support storm organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to   
   limit updraft depth and persistence, keeping the severe potential   
   low. Some surface-based instability is possible late tonight/early   
   Saturday for coastal areas, but lingering warm air aloft/modest   
   forcing for ascent will likely limit the overall severe potential   
   regionally until the post-12z Day 2/Saturday time frame.   
      
   ...Northern/Central California...   
   A prominent upper trough centered around -134W will gradually   
   progress eastward with a lead shortwave trough reaching coastal   
   portions of northern California and southwest Oregon late tonight   
   and early Saturday. A related influx of moistening and steepening   
   mid-level lapse rates will yield an increasing potential for some   
   thunderstorms tonight, particularly for coastal areas as a frontal   
   band moves inland. Considerably strengthening deep-layer winds may   
   contribute to some potential for convectively enhanced wind gusts,   
   but severe thunderstorm-related severe potential should remain   
   limited.   
      
   ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/02/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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