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   ACUS01 KWNS 021258   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 021257   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0657 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026   
      
   Valid 021300Z - 031200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.   
      
   ...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast...   
   Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs   
   moving within the broadly anticyclonic flow that covers much of the   
   CONUS. The easternmost shortwave is currently moving through eastern   
   OK and is forecast to continue progressing eastward throughout the   
   day, moving across the Mid-South and TN Valley. The westernmost   
   shortwave is currently moving into the Four Corners vicinity, with   
   continued southeastward progress anticipated throughout the day,   
   taking the wave through southern CO/northern NM, the TX Panhandle,   
   and OK/north TX. Recent surface analysis places a low over the   
   central TX/OK border region, with modest low-level moisture return   
   ongoing across the TX Gulf Coast and Lower MS Valley.   
      
   This low is forecast to progress gradually eastward in tandem with   
   its parent shortwave, ending the period over central AL. Broad   
   low-level moisture return will persist within the warm sector of   
   this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely extending from   
   southern LA into central MS/AL by early tomorrow morning. Warm-air   
   advection across this warm sector is forecast to result in elevated   
   instability beginning in the late afternoon and persisting through   
   the evening and overnight. Elevated thunderstorms are anticipated   
   near the nose of the low-level jet where the warm-air advection will   
   be maximized. Moderate mid-level flow will extend across the region   
   and vertical shear will be strong enough to support storm   
   organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to limit updraft   
   depth and persistence, keeping the overall severe potential low.   
      
   Some surface-based instability is possible very late in the period   
   (09Z-12Z Saturday) from southeast LA into the FL Panhandle. Even so,   
   limited forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy should temper the   
   overall severe potential here as well with the greater severe risk   
   occurring later and further downstream on Day 2 (Saturday).   
      
   ...Northern/Central CA...   
   A deep cyclone, currently over the western Pacific Ocean, is   
   forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day as a series of   
   shortwave troughs rotate through its southern and eastern periphery.   
   One of these shortwaves is forecast to reach the northern   
   CA/southern OR coast by late tonight. Strong ascent and cooling   
   mid-level temperatures associated with this wave will support   
   showers and embedded thunderstorms across northern and central CA   
   tonight. The deepest convection is anticipated within a frontal band   
   forecast to reach the region between 04Z and 06Z. Robust wind fields   
   will accompany this shortwave as well, but the limited buoyancy   
   should temper the overall severe potential.   
      
   ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/02/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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