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   ACUS02 KWNS 021726   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 021725   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1125 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026   
      
   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OREGON   
   COAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on   
   Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal   
   northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.   
      
   ...Southeast...   
   Late-morning surface observations across the TX/LA/MS region show   
   the early stages of moisture return ahead of a gradually deepening   
   surface low to the west across the southern Plains. The ejection of   
   a low-amplitude mid-level perturbation (noted in water-vapor imagery   
   over the Four Corners region as of 17 UTC) will lead to modest   
   strengthening and an eastward progression of the surface low into   
   the Southeast states through Saturday evening.   
      
   Thunderstorms will likely develop within the warm/moist advection   
   regime and along a weak surface trough/cold front by mid/late   
   afternoon across portions of AL, GA, and northern FL. A plume of low   
   to mid-60s dewpoints will likely become established by late   
   afternoon across the FL Panhandle into southern GA, and should   
   support MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg, though ongoing   
   showers/thunderstorms may modulate overall destabilization to some   
   degree. 50-knot mid-level flow will support adequate deep-layer   
   shear for organized convection, including the potential for   
   semi-discrete supercells before gradual upscale growth occurs   
   through late afternoon/evening. Some severe wind/hail and tornado   
   threat is expected to materialize, but uncertainty regarding the   
   degree of destabilization within the warm sector and storm mode   
   limits confidence for higher risk probabilities. This uncertainty is   
   reflected in 12z CAM/HREF guidance, which depicts only modest   
   signals for intense convection. That said, a more focused corridor   
   of severe risk may emerge along the FL/GA line where the convective   
   environment should be relatively most favorable for supercells.   
      
   ...Central Valley into the CA/OR Coasts...   
   A strong upper trough off the West Coast is expected to move inland   
   over the next 24 hours. Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms   
   will likely spread across northern CA and OR through peak heating   
   when modest low-level moisture (low 50s dewpoints) will likely   
   support a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Southerly low-level flow through   
   the Central Valley will maintain some low-level hodograph curvature   
   that may be favorable for a brief tornado or two. Additionally,   
   40-45 flow between the 1-3 km layer may augment downdraft winds and   
   support sporadic wind damage and perhaps a few severe gusts.   
      
   ..Moore.. 01/02/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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