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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS48 KWNS 020940   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 020939   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026   
      
   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the   
   South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley   
   mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the   
   broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least   
   low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.   
      
   Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude   
   shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the   
   week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of   
   this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to   
   interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf   
   into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates   
   severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.   
      
   In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus   
   suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West   
   late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level   
   southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast.   
   Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the   
   lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion   
   of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML   
   V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs   
   on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.   
      
   ..Grams.. 01/02/2026   
      
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