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   ACUS02 KWNS 020649   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 020647   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1247 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026   
      
   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST   
   AND PARTS OF CA/OR...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on   
   Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal   
   northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.   
      
   ...Southeast...   
   A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Lower   
   MS Valley to off the South Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. An   
   attendant weak surface cyclone should track from central AL to   
   offshore of SC by 00Z, with a cold front trailing west-southwest to   
   the central Gulf Coast. Low-level warm conveyor convection should   
   increase during the mid to late morning, with a separate round of   
   thunderstorms developing near the surface low to along the front by   
   midday into the afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature will be   
   modestly enlarged within the warm conveyor as it shifts east through   
   the day, but surface-based instability should remain weak with   
   low-probability tornado/wind threats.   
      
   It appears probable that a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE   
   of 1000-1500 J/kg should extend from around the mouth of the MS   
   River towards the western FL Panhandle by midday. However, low-level   
   flow will be increasingly veered in this portion of the warm sector   
   ahead of the front. Sufficient deep-layer speed shear should exist   
   for a few supercells with mid-level rotation, which may produce   
   isolated severe hail and eventually isolated damaging winds as   
   storms cluster during the afternoon.   
      
   ...Central Valley to coastal northern CA/southwest OR...   
   Most guidance depicts multiple shortwave impulses ejecting   
   northeastward from a deep upper trough off the Pacific Coast. The   
   southern impulse should move across central CA during the afternoon,   
   while a more vigorous northern impulse impinges on coastal OR during   
   the afternoon to early evening.   
      
   The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal   
   convective development across the Sacramento and northern San   
   Joaquin Valleys. Meager buoyancy should develop amid an elongated   
   hodograph. This should be sufficient for transient rotating cells,   
   which could pose a low-probability threat of a brief tornado.   
   Sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds may also occur.   
      
   The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed   
   strengthening of low-level flow, likely reaching 50-65 kts along the   
   northern CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain scant, but cold   
   mid-level temperatures aloft should support low-topped convection   
   that could contribute to localized severe gusts. Transient rotating   
   cells may also develop offshore and approach the northern CA coast   
   with a waterspout/low-probability brief tornado risk.   
      
   ..Grams.. 01/02/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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