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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 020526   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 020525   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1125 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026   
      
   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.   
      
   ...Gulf States...   
      
   Weak short-wave trough is currently noted over the southern High   
   Plains region. This feature is forecast to deamplify a bit as it   
   tracks into the lower MS Valley around 18z. Late in the period, a   
   stronger feature will dig into the Arklatx by 03/12z, but the lead   
   short wave is expected to be the primary feature that induces a LLJ   
   response across MS/AL/GA. Latest model guidance suggests weak   
   elevated instability will develop across much of the central Gulf   
   States, and this will prove more than adequate for elevated   
   convective development along the nose of the LLJ, where warm   
   advection will be maximized. Late in the period, weak SBCAPE is   
   expected to develop across southeast LA but the primary forcing   
   mechanism will be well north of this region and the prospect for   
   organized severe appears limited.   
      
   ...CA...   
      
   Strong midlevel speed max will translate inland across northern CA   
   after 03/06z. Profiles will cool as heights fall in response to this   
   feature, and lower tropospheric lapse rates will steepen. As a   
   result, forecast soundings exhibit significant moistening that will   
   lead to weak buoyancy and the possibility for at least isolated   
   thunderstorms as lifted parcels should be able to attain heights   
   necessary for lightning discharge. While wind fields will strengthen   
   markedly, at this time it appears gusty winds would be the greatest   
   risk with the more organized late-night convection. Severe threat   
   appears too low to warrant probabilities at this time.   
      
   ..Darrow/Marsh.. 01/02/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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