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   ACUS03 KWNS 011930   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 011929   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0129 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026   
      
   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE   
   SOUTHEAST...AND ALSO FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN CA INTO COASTAL   
   SOUTHWEST OR...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on   
   Saturday, and the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to   
   coastal northern California-southwest Oregon during the late   
   afternoon to evening.   
      
   ...Parts of the Southeast...   
   A positive-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move   
   from the lower MS Valley toward the South Atlantic Coast through the   
   period, as an attendant surface low moves from parts of AL/GA to   
   offshore of SC by late evening. A trailing cold front will move   
   through parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast vicinity.   
      
   Guidance continues to vary regarding the timing of the front and   
   extent of heating/destabilization across the warm sector, but a   
   plume of weak to moderate MLCAPE is expected to be in place   
   along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon, as low-level   
   moisture spreads northeastward. Some veering/weakening of low-level   
   flow is forecast across parts of the warm sector with time   
   (especially with southwestward extent), but increasing midlevel flow   
   will result in sufficient effective shear for organized storms,   
   including some supercell potential.   
      
   Any lingering morning convection may intensify during the afternoon,   
   with additional storm development expected along/ahead of the cold   
   front, and near the primary buoyancy gradient and effective warm   
   front. This activity could pose at least a low-probability threat   
   for all severe hazards. A corridor of somewhat greater potential may   
   evolve within the broader Marginal Risk area, though uncertainty   
   remains regarding the magnitude of diurnal heating/destabilization,   
   and the strength/timing of the primary shortwave trough as it moves   
   quickly eastward.   
      
   ...Northern CA to coastal southwest OR...   
   Latest guidance still depicts potential for multiple shortwave   
   troughs to eject northeastward from a deep mid/upper-level trough   
   off of the Pacific Coast. The southernmost shortwave is forecast to   
   move across central CA through the afternoon, while the more   
   vigorous northern shortwave is expected to affect coastal OR from   
   late afternoon into the evening.   
      
   The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal   
   convective development across the Sacramento and northern San   
   Joaquin Valleys, where cooling midlevel temperatures (dropping below   
   -20C at 500 mb) may support SBCAPE of 250-500 J/kg during the   
   afternoon. With relatively elongated hodographs, this generally   
   meager buoyancy may be sufficient for transient rotating cells to   
   develop, which could pose a threat for a brief tornado, small hail,   
   and locally gusty winds.   
      
   The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed   
   strengthening of low-level flow, potentially increasing to   
   near/above 60 kt at 850 mb over the ocean and along the northern   
   CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain meager, but cold   
   temperatures aloft will support low-topped convection that could   
   contribute to severe-gust potential. Transient rotating cells may   
   also develop offshore and approach the coast.   
      
   ..Dean.. 01/01/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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