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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1112 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026   
      
   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.   
      
   ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South...   
   A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the   
   south-central Plains toward the TN Valley through the period, while   
   a somewhat more vigorous shortwave progresses east-southeastward   
   from the Four Corners region toward the lower MS Valley. The   
   combination of these features will result in an elongated surface   
   low that will extend from northern MS/AL toward southern LA by   
   Friday evening.   
      
   Returning low-level moisture will result in a somewhat conditionally   
   favorable environment Friday afternoon from parts of LA into   
   southern MS, as MLCAPE increases to around 500 J/kg amid   
   strengthening deep-layer shear. However, poor midlevel lapse rates   
   and generally weak ascent across the warm sector may tend to limit   
   surface-based storm potential, with most guidance showing no diurnal   
   development across this area. A strengthening low-level jet will aid   
   in the development of elevated convection Friday evening, mainly   
   across parts of central/northern MS/AL/GA. Weak buoyancy should tend   
   to limit the organized severe threat with any elevated storms.   
   Convection may also tend to increase along the immediate central   
   Gulf Coast near the end of the period, but warm midlevel   
   temperatures are expected to limit storm depth and intensity in this   
   area through 12Z Saturday morning.   
      
   ...Northern CA into southwest OR...   
   A deep mid/upper-level trough and embedded deep-layer cyclone will   
   gradually approach the central and northern Pacific Coast through   
   the period. Within the large-scale trough, an embedded vorticity   
   maximum is forecast to approach northern CA and southwest OR by mid   
   to late evening. Colder temperatures aloft and some steepening of   
   midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region as this vorticity   
   maximum moves through, which will increase the threat for sporadic   
   lightning flashes with any stronger convective elements.   
      
   Most CAM guidance depicts development of a narrow rain band in   
   association with the lead vorticity maximum, which moves over   
   immediate coastal regions between 03-06Z. This band may be   
   coincident with gusty/locally damaging winds, given the   
   strengthening background wind field (50+ kt at 850 mb). However,   
   with stronger cooling aloft and steepening of low-level lapse rates   
   generally only expected in the wake of this band, the extent to   
   which any deeper convective processes contribute to wind-damage   
   potential is uncertain and may remain limited.   
      
   ..Dean.. 01/01/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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