TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168163.weather@1:2320/105 2dbe57fb   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   AWUS01 KWNH 011521   
   FFGMPD   
   CAZ000-012120-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0002   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1020 AM EST Thu Jan 01 2026   
      
   Areas affected...portions of southern California   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 011520Z - 012120Z   
      
   Summary...Deep convection along and ahead of a surface cold front   
   located about 85 miles west of San Diego will continue to foster a   
   flash flood risk across the discussion area through 21Z/1p Pacific   
   Time.   
      
   Discussion...Areas of deep convection persist especially in/near   
   terrain-favored upslope regions of the discussion area currently.=20   
   The convection was being supported by mid-level cooling (which has   
   fostered a pool of ~250 J/kg SBCAPE over Pacific and near-coastal   
   regions of the discussion area), orographic ascent (sponsored by   
   25-30 knot 850mb flow against Transverse and Peninsular coastal   
   ranges), and 1-1.3 inch PW values - supporting efficient rainfall   
   processes in/near convective activity.  Recent MRMS/observational   
   data depicts an uptick of rain rates in both Los Angeles Metro   
   (into the 0.4 inch/hr range) and across San Diego County (where   
   0.5-0.8 inch/hr rates were estimated).  These rain rates were   
   occuring over urban areas and near sensitive terrain from prior   
   flash flood impacts, burn scars, and terrain.  Flash flooding   
   remains possible in these areas in the short term.   
      
   Models/observations suggest that the aforementioned Pacific cold   
   front will traverse the region from west to east and bring a   
   substantial decrease in flood/flash flood potential over time.=20   
   For the Los Angeles area and Transverse Ranges, this risk will   
   likely extend into the 18-20Z timeframe before decreasing some.=20   
   The front will take a bit longer to cross San Diego and adjacent   
   Peninsular Ranges (around 21Z or so).  Flash flooding will remain   
   possible through the aforementioned timeframes.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!6E_IiCTFWyRPvFYk288JNEQ4usNjEugJcYFb_BEOQMvQUtQtZ-envxiDu0hzGaAhh2h-=   
   leCiEekM3pcilfnc8-zSexU$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...PSR...SGX...VEF...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   35241857 35091802 34771717 34251662 33621619=20   
               32831597 32531613 32461695 32551746 33081815=20   
               33981872 34691879=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14   
   SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/10 20 30   
   SEEN-BY: 220/70 90 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110   
   SEEN-BY: 229/134 206 275 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 267/800 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 770/1 100 340 350 772/210 220   
   SEEN-BY: 772/230 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426