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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 011242   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 011241   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0641 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026   
      
   Valid 011300Z - 021200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Locally damaging winds, and perhaps a brief weak tornado, could   
   occur along a portion of coastal southern California.   
      
   ...Southern CA...   
   Early-morning satellite imagery depicts a well-defined shortwave   
   trough off the southern CA coast (about 220 miles west-southwest of   
   Lompoc CA). This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward,   
   reaching the coast early this morning before then progressing   
   through central CA and into NV, deamplifying notably as it does. A   
   jetlet, characterized by around 50 kt at 500 mb, will accompany this   
   wave, spreading across central and southern CA in tandem with the   
   wave's northeastward progress. The leading edge of this stronger   
   flow aloft is being sampled by the VTX VAD.   
      
   This overall progression is contributing to broad ascent across much   
   of central/southern CA, evidenced by the widespread precipitation   
   across the region. Some stronger ascent and associated deeper   
   convection is occurring across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara   
   counties. Southern extent of this stronger ascent will likely   
   contribute to some deeper convection from the Channel Islands to the   
   southern CA Coast. Mid-level temperatures will be cooling across   
   this region as well, which could result in modest buoyancy within a   
   relatively shallow layer. This could result in enough buoyancy for a   
   few lightning flashes, although lapse rates are generally expected   
   to remain poor. Wind profiles support the potential for a strong,   
   convectively aided gust, and perhaps even a brief tornado, if   
   updraft depth and persistence is sufficient. However, given the   
   scarcity of buoyancy, the majority of convection will remain sub   
   severe.   
      
   ..Mosier/Weinman.. 01/01/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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