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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 010828   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 010828   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0228 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026   
      
   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST   
   AND NORTHERN CA TO COASTAL SOUTHWEST OR...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on   
   Saturday, and the Sacramento Valley to coastal northern   
   California-southwest Oregon during the late afternoon to evening.   
      
   ...Southeast...   
   A lower-amplitude shortwave trough should progress east across the   
   Lower MS Valley on Saturday morning and off the South Atlantic Coast   
   by Saturday night. Attendant surface cyclone should remain weak and   
   track from central AL to off coastal SC by evening. Timing of   
   large-scale ascent with the trough should yield increasing   
   convective coverage by late morning to midday, focused along the   
   northeast Gulf Coast to the Savannah Valley. Much of the region   
   should remain within the MLCAPE gradient as a plume of moderate   
   buoyancy becomes established over the northwest Gulf to central Gulf   
   Coast. Guidance consensus suggests that low-level winds may   
   gradually dampen through the day and become displaced east of richer   
   boundary-layer moisture as the surface low moves towards the coast.   
   With a predominately west-southwesterly wind profile, deep-layer   
   speed shear should be the primary driver of organized convection. A   
   mix of all hazards appears plausible, although a corridor of greater   
   damaging wind potential may be evident in later outlooks.   
      
   ...Northern CA to coastal southwest OR...   
   Guidance appears to be converging towards multiple shortwave   
   impulses ejecting northeast from a large-scale trough off the West   
   Coast. The more vigorous impulse should impinge on coastal OR around   
   Saturday evening, while a separate impulse dampens from the Bay Area   
   to the Sierra NV Mountains on Saturday afternoon. The southern   
   impulse should be favorably timed with afternoon boundary-layer   
   heating over the Sacramento Valley, where meager MLCAPE of 250-500   
   J/kg may develop. Amid a swath of strong mid-level   
   south-southwesterlies, an elongated hodograph could favor splitting   
   weak supercell structures that pose a risk for a brief tornado and   
   small hail. The northern impulse should be accompanied by very   
   strong low-level southerlies from 60-70 kts at 850 mb. While   
   buoyancy will remain scant, low-topped convection along the northern   
   CA to southwest OR coast could pose a threat for severe gusts.   
      
   ..Grams.. 01/01/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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