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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   303 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Thu Jan 01 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 02 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   A 500mb trough with a small, yet potent, closed circulation will   
   become part of a negatively tilted 200-500mb upper-trough axis=20   
   that is partially responsible for the slug of highly anomalous=20   
   moisture that will engulf much of the West today. The focus remains   
   on Southern California where the Transverse Ranges soils remain=20   
   quite sensitive in wake of last week's significant flooding. IVT=20   
   values are encroaching upon 500 kg/m/s and embedded within SSWrly=20   
   flow that is aligned orthogonally to the Transverse Ranges.   
   Additional forcing will be located along the frontal boundary that   
   will trigger additional convection over the East Pacific upon=20   
   approach. PWATs are forecast to be just over 1.25" off the Southern   
   California coast through this morning, but around 18Z, a dryslot=20   
   in the 700-300mb layer should result in the conclusion of today's=20   
   heaviest rainfall. Some lingering heavy rainfall may be possible in   
   the Peninsular Range east of San Diego beyond 18Z, but most=20   
   rainfall around the L.A. region should be just about over (aside=20   
   from lingering upslope into the Transverse Ranges).   
      
   Latest HREF guidance does show minor instability present (<250=20   
   J/kg on average) between 09-18Z, which may be just enough when=20   
   taking into account sensitive soils to result in additional flash=20   
   flooding in not just the Transverse Ranges, but also the greater=20   
   Los Angeles metro area as well. The new 00Z HREF 24-hour QPF=20   
   probabilities for surpassing 3" of rainfall peaks around 50% over=20   
   the San Bernadino and low chances (15-25) for localized totals   
   eclipsing 5". Snow levels remain very high, making just about all=20   
   of the expected QPF to be in the form of rain. The lack of higher-   
   end instability is what is keeping the Slight Risk in place, but=20   
   make no mistake-- there remains a heightened risk for flash=20   
   flooding this morning in Southern CA with rock slides and debris=20   
   flows in/around burn scars possible, including urbanized flash=20   
   flooding.   
      
   Farther north, most area have recovered a bit better from last   
   week's significant rainfall, but the copious amounts of moisture   
   combined with sufficient synopitc-scale forcing aloft and   
   supportive upslope flow along the Coastal Range and as far inland   
   as the Sierra Nevada does suggest a Marginal Risk for flash=20   
   flooding is still warranted. The 00Z HREF does show a small area=20   
   between Santa Maria and Big Sur where MUCAPE >250 J/kg could=20   
   materialize between 15-18Z and foster more potent instantaneous=20   
   rainfall rates as convection moves through. Still, the line of=20   
   showers and thunderstorms would be progressive and keep the flash=20   
   flooding potential to a very localized area.   
      
   Mullinax   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Fri Jan 02 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF=20   
   CALIFORNIA...   
      
   An expansive upper level cutoff low over the Pacific well west of   
   the northern California coast will approach the northern California   
   coast Friday night. The occluded front wrapping around a surface   
   low will be the primary forcing for heavy rainfall into northern   
   California Friday night. The occluded front will turn the flow a   
   bit more onshore (southeast before the front to south-southwest   
   behind it). This will allow the coastal ranges to upslope some of   
   that moisture, locally enhancing rainfall rates, particularly into   
   the northern Coastal Ranges and the Klamath Mountains. Some heavy   
   rain may impact the Bay area and the coastal ranges south from=20   
   there in the waning couple hours of the period, assuming the timing   
   of the front moving into the coast remains unchanged. IVT values   
   between 500 and 750 kg/ms are far from impressive, and moisture   
   anomalies rise to around 2 sigma above normal, a common occurrence   
   in this part of the world, especially the past few weeks. Thus,   
   with the rainfall event just getting going, coming in in the middle   
   of the night, and with less-than-impressive dynamics, the Marginal   
   Risk for much of the central and northern California coast remains   
   largely unchanged with this update, and the Marginal looks on   
   track.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   CALIFORNIA...   
      
   A series of upper level disturbances rotating around a large upper   
   level low will impact much of California and the West Coast this   
   weekend. With each upper level disturbance, there will be a   
   commensurate surface front that also makes its way ashore into   
   northern California. The result will be an almost non-stop rain,   
   especially for upslope areas on southerly flow, as well as for all   
   of the coastal ranges. That said, each disturbance will briefly   
   increase rainfall rates, with those rates decreasing back down in   
   between disturbances. Thus, Saturday's rain looks to be a long-   
   duration relatively light (for most areas) rain, rather than there   
   being big concerns on any one area seeing prolonged heavy rain.   
   Given the area's good ability to drain rainwater quickly, a   
   Marginal Risk remains in effect for northern California. The area   
   will continue to be monitored for a possible Slight Risk upgrade   
   with future updates.   
      
   Wegman   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Rd4klNHDXq3TCE9EpfP8m2jvk0W0FHh0fvjOIQZ57Il=   
   p0qs_A6k5ve8KImZ-y425vhc7wvpSUuMCIdCPXrqCCghLbY$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Rd4klNHDXq3TCE9EpfP8m2jvk0W0FHh0fvjOIQZ57Il=   
   p0qs_A6k5ve8KImZ-y425vhc7wvpSUuMCIdCPXrqquxeOIg$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Rd4klNHDXq3TCE9EpfP8m2jvk0W0FHh0fvjOIQZ57Il=   
   p0qs_A6k5ve8KImZ-y425vhc7wvpSUuMCIdCPXrqBVgBaJM$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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