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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS02 KWNS 010643   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 010642   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1242 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026   
      
   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night.   
      
   ...Central Gulf Coast and the Deep South...   
   A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should move across the Mid-South   
   to the southern Appalachians. An upstream shortwave trough will   
   progress from the Four Corners east-southeast across north TX. The   
   00Z NAM is an outlier with its phasing of these features, while   
   other guidance maintains separate impulses. Weak elevated MUCAPE is   
   anticipated with the lead impulse, along the northern periphery of   
   lower-level moisture return emanating northeast of the northwest   
   Gulf. Sufficient saturation/ascent should occur for increasing   
   convection on Friday evening across parts of the interior Deep South   
   to TN Valley. The southern portion of this activity may yield   
   isolated thunder coverage on Friday night.   
      
   Farther south, the outlier NAM appears aggressive with early morning   
   Saturday convective development near the central Gulf Coast, amid   
   strong deep-layer shear and modest near-surface buoyancy. However,   
   most other parametrized guidance and especially CAMs struggle to   
   generate deep convection through 12Z Saturday given weak lapse rates   
   and rather dry mid-levels. Unconditional probabilities for hazard   
   still appear to be below level-1 MRGL risk thresholds.   
      
   ...Northern CA and southwest OR...   
   A deep mid/upper trough will gradually approach the Pacific Coast   
   through early Saturday, as an intense jet spreads into northern CA.   
   Despite an initially pronounced low-level warm conveyor, instability   
   is expected to remain negligible until Friday night. Gradual   
   steepening of mid-level lapse rates should occur along coastal areas   
   of northern CA and southwest OR, and potentially reach the   
   Sacramento Valley prior to 12Z. This may support very isolated   
   thunderstorm development overnight to early Saturday morning. Any   
   lightning-producing convection could be coincident with strong   
   gradient winds, but the convective contribution to damaging-wind   
   potential will likely be limited by the expected scant buoyancy.   
      
   ..Grams.. 01/01/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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