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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 010532   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 010530   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1130 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025   
      
   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Locally damaging winds, and a perhaps a brief weak tornado, could   
   occur along a portion of coastal southern California.   
      
   ...Southern CA...   
      
   Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low about   
   300 mi WSW of Lompoc CA ejecting ENE in line with latest model   
   guidance. This feature is forecast to shift inland as a 500mb speed   
   max translates across the Channel Islands toward southern NV by   
   early evening. Left-exit region of this jet will overspread the   
   southern interior valley with seasonally cool 500mb temperatures   
   noted north of the jet. Even so, forecast instability is expected to   
   remain weak as MUCAPE values should remain generally less than a few   
   hundred J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates are also not expected to be   
   particularly steep and this is reflected in the sparsity of   
   lightning currently noted with convection beneath the offshore low.   
      
   Latest thinking is scattered weak convection will be the primary   
   concern with the frontal zone early in the period, and much of this   
   activity may struggle to generate lightning despite the maritime   
   influences that will prove instrumental for this activity. While   
   some risk for gusty winds, and perhaps a brief weak tornado exists,   
   the majority of convection will remain sub severe.   
      
   ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/01/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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