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   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   308 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025   
      
   Valid 00Z Thu Jan 01 2026 - 00Z Sun Jan 04 2026   
      
      
   *** New Year's Eve Snow Squall Threat For the Lower Great Lakes,   
    Ohio Valley, through the Interior Northeast ***   
      
   ...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Interior Northeast...=20   
   Days 1-2... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Moderate   
      
   A deep cold core low will meander near Hudson Bay through Friday.   
   The most notable reinforcing trough of this time crosses northern   
   MI this evening and the Interior Northeast overnight before   
   swinging through northern New England through Thursday. The Arctic   
   front tonight brings a notable snow squall threat at a bit slower   
   timing than previous forecasts. 12Z CAMs note the eastern Midwest   
   and eastern Great Lakes should get the front in the mid-evening   
   hours with the Upper Ohio Valley, PA, and southern NY overnight   
   with some semblance crossing NYC prior to sunrise Thursday/New   
   Years Day. The frontal crossing of Lake Erie in particular this   
   evening looks to enhance ongoing LES from westerly flow into areas   
   just south of Buffalo. The 12Z HREF highlights a risk period for   
   2"/hr snow from 22Z to 03Z south of Buffalo through the Chautauqua   
   Ridge before tapering off for a few hours as the fetch turns NWly   
   behind the front.   
      
   Though the most impactful snow squalls can be when=20   
   unfrozen roads get quickly covered with snow and temperatures=20   
   plunge below freezing (flash freeze behind the cold front), the=20   
   region is currently cold (10s/20s) and the front will make it   
   colder. Given it is New Year's Eve the the timing for much of   
   western NY/PA and eastern Ohio is around midnight, please take=20   
   caution tonight on the roads. Key Messages have been updated. (see   
   link at bottom).   
      
   Continued westerly upslope flow ahead of the arctic cold front will   
   retain upslope snow showers on the central Appalachians with rates   
   increasing right up until the cold frontal passage early Thursday.   
   The 12Z HREF indicates likely >1"/hr snow rates working their way   
   down the Laurel Highlands in PA, western MD, and central WV from=20   
   02Z to 12Z where Day 1 WPC probabilities for >6" snow are 40-90%.=20   
      
   Flow becomes WNWly again late Thursday with LES off Erie and in   
   particular Lake Ontario then through Friday. 48hr probs for >12"   
   additional Days 1/2 are 50-80% southeast of both lakes with the   
   greatest risk generally just north of Syracuse.   
      
      
   ...Eastern Maine...=20   
   Day 1... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Moderate   
      
   The vigorous mid-level trough moving through the Great Lakes this   
   evening will reach New England late tonight with a more pronounced   
   surface low tracking over the Gulf of Maine Thursday. This shifts   
   the heavy snow focus farther inland with a heavy snow forecast   
   now from the central Maine coast up through eastern Maine. The 12Z   
   HREF provides an excellent picture of the threat with >1"/hr rates   
   moving onto the central coast around 14Z and rotating through   
   eastern Maine through 22Z. Day 1 PWPF for >6" is now 50-80% from   
   Penobscot Bay east along the coast and north through areas east of   
   I-95.=20   
      
      
   ...High Sierra Nevada through the Central Rockies...=20   
   Days 1-3... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Minor   
      
   A deep trough in the subtropical Eastern Pacific will lift=20   
   NNE through the central CA coast early Thursday before crossing the   
   Sierra Nevada and into Nevada Thursday evening, reaching CO Friday   
   morning. High snow levels of 9000-10,000ft ahead of the low will=20   
   limit impacts into Thursday morning. However, as the trough moves=20   
   inland, snow levels on the Sierra Nevada will fall to around=20   
   7500ft Thursday afternoon, bringing heavy snow until precipitation=20   
   ends that evening. The 12Z HREF highlights 16Z to 22Z Thursday as a   
   period of >1" snow rates on the southern Sierra Nevada.=20   
      
   Moisture will stream ENE across the Great Basin ahead of the   
   trough to the CO Rockies where Day 2 WPC probabilities of >6" of=20   
   snow are >50% above 8000ft or so in the Wasatch Front, the Park=20   
   Range in CO, the Tetons in WY. Precip tapers off Friday afternoon   
   over the Rockies.   
      
   The next wave of precipitation spreads east across CA Friday night   
   with snow levels around 6500ft. This is the first part of prolonged   
   precip into CA through at least Monday. Day 3 WPC probabilities=20   
   for >8" of snow through the period are >50% above about 7000ft on=20   
   the length of the Sierra Nevada and the CA Cascades/Klamath Mtns.=20   
      
      
   ...Columbia Basin and Gorge...   
   Days 1-2... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Minor   
      
   Light precip spreads over the Northwest Thursday before tapering   
   offs Friday. Sufficient cold air in place looks to make localized=20   
   light icing in the western Columbia Basin into the Columbia Gorge   
   where Day 1.5 WPC probabilities for >0.10" ice are now 20-40%.   
      
      
   Jackson=20   
      
      
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect for Snow Squalls tonight   
   and linked here...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5OX3cFckbTslL-BxvRSg_xmJKwNMApRf2yOgI7VCdKdSs=   
   r80ePeKcI981KD-2qgLfPPHzgK4cUoYhqwgooy0L3DTPmU$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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