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   ACUS03 KWNS 311932   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 311930   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0130 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025   
      
   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   General thunderstorms are forecast, mainly Friday night into early   
   morning Saturday, across the central Gulf Coast and Deep South, as   
   well as along coastal areas of central and northern California and   
   southwest Orgeon.   
      
   ...LA/MS/AL vicinity...   
   A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from   
   the south-central Plains towards the TN Valley on Friday. A somewhat   
   stronger upstream shortwave trough will move quickly   
   east-southeastward from the Great Basin toward parts of north/east   
   TX. A surface low initially over north TX is expected to move   
   eastward toward northern MS/AL by Friday night. Increasing low-level   
   moisture within the warm sector of this low will allow for modest   
   diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing to   
   near/above 500 J/kg across parts of LA/MS, in advance of a trailing   
   cold front.   
      
   Strengthening deep-layer shear will become conditionally favorable   
   for organized convection, but potential for robust surface-based   
   development may be limited by poor midlevel lapse rates and   
   relatively modest large-scale ascent within the warm sector. It   
   still appears that the bulk of any thunderstorm development will be   
   somewhat elevated and occur near and north of the surface warm front   
   across northern MS/AL/GA and southern TN, primarily during the   
   evening and overnight. At this time, elevated buoyancy appears   
   insufficient to support an organized severe threat with this   
   activity. However, if confidence increases regarding development of   
   near-surface-based storms within the warm sector of the   
   eastward-moving low, then severe probabilities may eventually be   
   needed.   
      
   ...Coastal northern CA/southwest OR...   
   A deep mid/upper-level trough will gradually move eastward and   
   approach the Pacific Coast by Friday night, as a strong jet begins   
   to impinge upon areas of central/northern CA and the Pacific   
   Northwest. A deepening surface low associated with this trough is   
   expected to remain offshore through Saturday morning. The strongest   
   low-level flow (50+ kt at 850 mb) will occur within the warm   
   conveyor of this cyclone, where instability is expected to remain   
   negligible.   
      
   Late in the period, some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates   
   may approach coastal areas of central/northern CA and southwest OR.   
   This may allow for development of generally weak convection with   
   sproadic lightning flashes. Low-level flow is forecast to remain   
   rather strong (35-45 kt at 850 mb) as midlevel lapse rates begin to   
   steepen, and any lightning-producing convection could be coincident   
   with gusty winds. However, any convective contribution to   
   damaging-wind potential may be limited by very meager surface-based   
   buoyancy through the end of the period.   
      
   ..Dean.. 12/31/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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