TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168125.weather@1:2320/105 2dbcb947   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS48 KWNS 310953   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 310951   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025   
      
   Valid 031200Z - 081200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Primary severe concern will be across the northeast Gulf Coast   
   States, during the morning to afternoon on D4/Saturday. A   
   lower-amplitude shortwave trough remains consistently progged to   
   dampen as it progresses quickly across the Southeast and northeast   
   Gulf. With a weak surface cyclone, low-level winds should remain   
   veered. But this should be adequate for weak buoyancy to spread   
   east, emanating from the northwest Gulf and LA. With a more robust   
   convective signal closer to the coast compared to D3/Friday, at   
   least a level 1-MRGL risk should be warranted. This is supported by   
   latest SPC-CSU and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance with overlapping 5   
   percent probability areas.   
      
   Along coastal CA, while run-to-run predictability is poor, latest   
   guidance has some signal for low-topped supercell potential this   
   weekend, downstream of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Coast.   
   This appears generally focused across northern CA on D4/Saturday,   
   shifting to southern CA on D5/Sunday. Spatiotemporal aspects of   
   individual shortwave impulses and attendant mid-level jetlets   
   relative to probable scant/meager buoyancy profiles will be crucial   
   for delineating areal highlights in shorter-term outlooks.   
      
   Otherwise, a combination of low potential/predictability remains   
   evident early next week.   
      
   ..Grams.. 12/31/2025   
      
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