TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168124.weather@1:2320/105 2dbca596   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 310829   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 310828   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0228 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025   
      
   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   General thunderstorms are forecast, mainly Friday night into early   
   morning Saturday, across the central Gulf Coast and Deep South, as   
   well as along a portion of the Pacific Coast.   
      
   ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South...   
   At least isolated thunderstorm potential should return across a   
   portion of the interior Deep South on Friday night. Meager elevated   
   buoyancy should develop as low-level moistening occurs ahead of a   
   leading shortwave impulse tracking across the Mid-South to TN   
   Valley. This impulse may dampen downstream of a shortwave trough   
   progressing from the Four Corners to north TX. The bulk of MUCAPE   
   should largely remain at around 500 J/kg or less, owing to modest   
   mid-level lapse rates.   
      
   Farther south towards the central Gulf Coast from southeast LA to   
   the FL Panhandle, richer low-level moisture should spread somewhat   
   inland ahead of the more prominent shortwave trough. Most   
   convective-parameterized models suggest an increase in convective   
   development may occur at the end of the period within the low-level   
   theta-e gradient. Despite a generally zonal deep-layer wind profile,   
   adequate low-level hodograph curvature and robust speed shear   
   renders a conditional supercell concern. But poor mid-level lapse   
   rates renders concern for the degree of convective development prior   
   to 12Z, with the 00Z RRFS having minimal deep convective signal.   
   With minimal ML probabilities across this area as well, will defer   
   to later outlook cycles for a level 1-MRGL risk highlight.   
      
   ...Coastal northern CA and southwest OR...   
   A large-scale upper trough will approach the Pacific Coast, with an   
   intense mid-level jetlet likely impinging on the northern CA coast   
   on Friday night. Fast deep-layer flow is anticipated within the   
   low-level warm conveyor, but should remain entirely meridional until   
   near the end of the period. Instability within the warm conveyor   
   appears minimal, suggesting that thunderstorm potential will remain   
   negligible amid strong gradient flow. Steepening mid-level lapse   
   rates may brush the northern CA to southwest OR coast in the early   
   morning Saturday. This should support scant buoyancy and potential   
   for very isolated thunderstorms.   
      
   ..Grams.. 12/31/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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