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   FOUS11 KWBC 310710   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   210 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025   
      
   Valid 12Z Wed Dec 31 2025 - 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026   
      
      
   *** New Year's Eve Snow Squall Threat From Michigan through=20   
    Interior Northeast ***   
      
   ...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Interior Northeast...=20   
   Days 1-3... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Major   
      
   A deep cold core low will meander near Hudson Bay through the rest   
   of the week as a series of reinforcing troughs and impulses track=20   
   on its southwest/southerly periphery over the Great Lakes and into=20   
   the Northeast. This will maintains bouts of lake-effect snow off=20   
   all the Great Lakes, but especially east of Lakes Erie and Ontario.   
   A rather robust upper through will move out of the Upper Great=20   
   Lakes this morning and across NY/PA tonight. CAMs show this arctic=20   
   front bringing a notable snow squall threat across eastern Michigan   
   this afternoon and the eastern Great Lakes/PA/NY tonight. Though=20   
   the most impactful snow squalls can be when unfrozen roads get=20   
   quickly covered with snow and temperatures plunge below freezing=20   
   (flash freeze behind the cold front), the region is currently cold=20   
   (10s/20s). Given it is New Year's Eve and the HREF shows the=20   
   highest probability of >1"/hr rates late this afternoon and=20   
   evening, the threat to drivers is more acute. Please take caution=20   
   tonight in the Interior Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. Key Messages are=20   
   highlighting this NYE snow squall threat (see link at bottom).=20   
      
   In addition to the lake effect snows and the snow squalls, strong=20   
   upslope flow behind the arctic cold front and ahead of the=20   
   reinforcing trough axis over the central Appalachians will favor a=20   
   few hours of heavy snow tonight over central WV northward through=20   
   western MD and into the Laurel Highlands in PA. WPC probabilities=20   
   for at least 6 inches of snow days 1-1.5 are 40-80% over this=20   
   terrain.   
      
   WPC's 72-hour snowfall probabilities remain high (>70%) for=20   
   additional snow >18" in NW PA through the Chautauqua Ridge in=20   
   southwestern NY into the Buffalo Southtowns. Localized amounts=20   
   could exceed 2ft. Just southeast of Lake Ontario, WPC probabilities   
   are high chances (>70%) for an additional 18" or more in the=20   
   region between Syracuse, Watertown, and east of Rochester (centered   
   around Oswego). Over Michigan, snowfall will trend farther north=20   
   each day, but totals will still be appreciable in the eastern U.P.=20   
   where WPC 72hr probabilities for >8" are 40-90% in the eastern U.P.   
   and around 30-60% in northwestern Lower Michigan.   
      
      
   ...Down East Maine...   
   Day 1-2... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Minor to Moderate   
      
   The vigorous mid-level trough moving through the Great Lakes today   
   will reach New England just after midnight with a surface low over   
   northern NY into VT. By tomorrow morning, the system will continue   
   to deepen into the Gulf of Maine, spurring a sub-1000mb low that=20   
   could quickly deepen to below 990mb as it nears the Bay of Fundy=20   
   later in the afternoon. This could focus heavier bands of snow=20   
   right along the coast with >1"/hr rates (~50% probability per the=20   
   00Z HREF). The system will be quick-moving but could still yield=20   
   several inches of snow within a 12-hr window. WPC probabilities for   
   at least 6 inches of snow are >50% near and east of I-95 from the=20   
   Midcoast northeastward.   
      
      
   ...High Sierra Nevada to the Central Rockies...=20   
   Days 2-3... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Minor   
      
   A deep trough in the subtropical Eastern Pacific will lift=20   
   northward then northeastward into NorCal tomorrow, bringing an=20   
   expanse of light to moderate precipitation to the Southwest to the=20   
   Interior West. High snow levels 9000-10,000ft will limit impacts=20   
   today. For tomorrow, as the trough moves inland, snow levels of=20   
   will fall to around 8500ft as precipitation gradually ends by late=20   
   Thursday into early Friday. Moisture will stream ENE across the=20   
   Great Basin to the CO Rockies where WPC probabilities of at least 8   
   inches of snow are >50% above 9000ft or so in the Park Range and=20   
   also into the Tetons in WY.   
      
   After a short break, another wave of precipitation will enter the=20   
   NorCal ranges and northern Sierra with lower snow levels region-=20   
   wide   
   -- generally around 6500ft to the north and around 7000ft in   
    thenorthern Sierra. WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of   
    snow through the period are >50% above about 9000ft.=20   
      
      
   ...Columbia Basin and Gorge...   
   Days 2-3... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Minor   
      
   Light precip spreads over the Northwest Thursday and continues=20   
   into the weekend. Sufficient cold air in place could make for some=20   
   localize light icing. WPC probabilities for >0.10" ice are low=20   
   (<20%) in the western Columbia Basin into the Columbia Gorge.   
      
      
   Fracasso=20   
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20   
    Key Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!7slxo0TbURtNNxqpRzx7SNwzJQFQzyrcXir7_6NmkW16g=   
   pdOM_ajE5Fi2w8YZ3piSjFtZSa2V3LKJ5cqLNJPXP-nFg0$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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