TZUTC: 0000   
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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS02 KWNS 310655   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 310653   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1253 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025   
      
   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL   
   SOUTHERN CA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible along a   
   portion of coastal southern California on New Year's Day morning.   
      
   ...CA and the Southwest...   
   Guidance continues a decidedly northward trend to the evolution of   
   the compact shortwave trough, currently west of southern CA. Latest   
   indications are for this wave to reach the San Joaquin Valley around   
   midday Thursday, before slightly dampening over the southern Great   
   Basin. Thunderstorm potential appears greatest on Thursday morning   
   with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible across southern   
   CA. Despite the early time of day, activity along the coast should   
   be surface-based along the periphery of low 60s dew points.   
   Buoyancy/instability will remain meager, given the expected   
   northerly track of the wave and attendant mesoscale cold core   
   displaced from the richer moisture plume. But guidance is consistent   
   with the depiction of 40-50 kt 700-mb flow across the Transverse   
   Ranges through midday. With some low-level hodograph curvature and   
   several CAMs suggestive of at least one rotating cell in the LA   
   Basin vicinity, have opted to include a small level 1-MRGL risk for   
   wind and tornado.   
      
   Confidence remains low in the degree of thunderstorm potential   
   farther north and east. Lower-level moisture east of CA should be   
   greater across AZ, but this may remain displaced too far south of   
   the latest consensus for the mid-level cold core. It is plausible   
   that much of the convection from the Central Valley to AZ will   
   remain low-topped, with thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent   
   or less.   
      
   ..Grams.. 12/31/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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