TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168119.weather@1:2320/105 2dbc783a   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 310515   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 310513   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1113 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025   
      
   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible along coastal southern   
   California very late in the period.   
      
   ...Southern CA...   
      
   Seasonally strong southern-stream upper trough is forecast to   
   approach the southern CA coast late in the period. Latest model   
   guidance suggests a strong 500mb speed max will translate through   
   the base of the trough by 01/12z, and the left-exit region of this   
   speed max will encourage convection along/ahead of a weak front as   
   it surges inland, primarily after 09z. Forecast soundings along the   
   coast suggest thunderstorms should be elevated in nature, with   
   initial convection likely rooted above 850mb. However, as the front   
   approaches, the level of parcel lift should lower, but likely remain   
   slightly elevated. Even so, low-level shear/forcing is not expected   
   to be particularly strong, and buoyancy appears inadequate for any   
   meaningful risk of severe.   
      
   ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/31/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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