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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 301930   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 301929   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0129 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025   
      
   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts   
   of southern California and Arizona.   
      
   ...Southern CA to AZ...   
   A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of   
   southern CA Thursday morning, before dampening as it shifts eastward   
   across parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region later   
   in the period. Cooling aloft atop modestly increasing low-level   
   moisture will support some early-day thunderstorm potential across   
   coastal southern CA.   
      
   Guidance continues to vary regarding the strength, trajectory, and   
   magnitude of attendant flow fields of this system as it approaches   
   the coast. The somewhat stronger and farther south solutions (such   
   as the 12Z NAM/RRFS) depict potential for strong storm development   
   offshore, which could affect near-coastal areas of southern CA   
   during the morning before weakening. Other guidance (such as the 12Z   
   ECMWF) has trended northward, bringing stronger midlevel flow across   
   southern CA, but also greater displacement between substantial   
   cooling aloft and the more favorable low-level moisture. In general,   
   confidence in sufficient strengthening of flow within this weak   
   buoyancy regime remains too low to include severe probabilities.   
      
   Uncertainty regarding the evolution of the shortwave extends   
   downstream into parts of the Desert Southwest, but an area of   
   modestly enhanced low-level moisture across southwest AZ could   
   support isolated storm development later in the day into the   
   evening, as some cooling aloft overspreads the region.   
      
   ..Dean.. 12/30/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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