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   MSGID: 168097.weather@1:2320/105 2dbb4733   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 300734   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 300733   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0133 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025   
      
   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts   
   of southern California and Arizona.   
      
   ...Southern CA to AZ...   
   While guidance has general agreement of a compact/lower-amplitude   
   shortwave impulse off the southern CA coast, models differ on its   
   spatial placement and potential dampening inland on Thursday amid a   
   broad ridge anchored across the West downstream of a longwave trough   
   in the northeast Pacific. This renders uncertainty over the degree   
   of mesoscale low-level flow enhancement along coastal southern CA   
   between 12-18Z, which will be crucial to any severe potential with   
   low-topped convection amid a meager buoyancy profile. In addition,   
   with latitudinal inconsistency in placement of the compact mid-level   
   cold core, confidence is low in the degree of thunderstorm   
   potential. The 00Z ECMWF appears to support potential for   
   low-probability severe on Thursday morning. Most other models, along   
   with the latest GEFS and yesterday's ECENS ML guidance, indicate   
   negligible severe potential.   
      
   Farther inland, buoyancy should remain scant east of the Peninsular   
   Ranges. But it may be adequate for sporadic lightning flashes that   
   yield very isolated thunderstorms across southwest AZ through   
   Thursday evening.   
      
   ..Grams.. 12/30/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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