TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168096.weather@1:2320/105 2dbb41d3   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   FOUS11 KWBC 300711   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   211 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025   
      
   Valid 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025 - 12Z Fri Jan 02 2026   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Interior Northeast...   
   Days 1-3... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Moderate to Major   
      
   Deep upper troughing will linger over southern Hudson Bay/James   
   Bay for the next few days, maintaining broad cyclonic flow out of   
   central Canada and across the Great Lakes. This will result in a   
   mostly continuous period of lake effect snow downwind of all Great   
   Lakes but focused especially east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Two   
   mid-level shortwaves will zip through the southwest/southern base   
   of the trough which will act to disrupt the banding and also infuse   
   a bit more lift and moisture to the region. With lake temperatures   
   in the 30s to 40s and 850mb temperatures -15 to -20C, sufficient   
   lift will be generated over the lakes on a general NW to W flow   
   from the Upper Lakes to Lower Lakes, respectively. This will set up   
   multi-banded snows over Michigan with multi to strong single   
   banded snows over NW PA, western NY, and between Syracuse and   
   Watertown. The bands will modulate due to the shortwaves moving   
   through the region, with the first tonight and the second Wednesday   
   with perhaps a third weaken one overnight Thursday. The passage of   
   the second shortwave and associated surface arctic front may also   
   bring the threat for snow squalls tomorrow afternoon into the   
   overnight (New Year's Eve) from Michigan to Ohio to Pennsylvania   
   per the Snow Squall Parameter.   
      
   In addition to the lake effect snows, strong upslope ascent into   
   the central Appalachians will favor at least modest totals over   
   eastern WV northward through western MD and into the Laurel   
   Highlands in PA, especially Wednesday into Thursday.   
      
   WPC's 72-hour snowfall probabilities show high chances (>70%) for   
   snowfall totals >18" in NW PA and along the Chautauqua Ridge in   
   southwestern NY into some of the Buffalo Southtowns. Localized   
   amounts could exceed 2-3ft. Just east of Lake Ontario, WPC   
   probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall   
   totals >18" in the region between Syracuse, Watertown, and east of   
   Rochester (centered around Oswego). Over Michigan, totals will   
   likely be lower, but still appreciable. WPC probabilities for at   
   least 8 inches of snow are highest (>50%) near/southwest of the   
   Keweenaw Peninsula, the eastern U.P., and over northwestern Lower   
   Michigan. Farther south, WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of   
   snow are highest over eastern WV northward to the Laurel Highlands   
   in PA. Light to perhaps modest snow is also possible into the   
   Green Mountains in VT via upslope flow.   
      
      
   ...Sierra Nevada to the Central Rockies...   
   Days 2-3... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Minor to Moderate   
      
   A deep trough in the subtropical Eastern Pacific will lift toward   
   California and weaken on Wednesday, spreading generally light to   
   moderate QPF over the region. Snow levels will be high   
   (>9000-10,000ft) where more than 8 inches is likely above 10,000ft   
   through Thursday night. Lighter precipitation will spread   
   northwestward through Utah to the CO Rockies amid high snow levels   
   (8000-9000ft) and generally near to under 6 inches of snow.   
      
      
   Fracasso   
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307   
   SEEN-BY: 229/317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364   
   SEEN-BY: 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426