TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168072.weather@1:2320/105 2dba0c89   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS48 KWNS 290912   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 290911   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025   
      
   Valid 011200Z - 061200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will   
   approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears   
   increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states   
   through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern   
   High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture   
   return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass   
   intrusion today.   
      
   Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday   
   to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and   
   into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread   
   across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of   
   amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of   
   signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly   
   lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant   
   concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles.   
      
   ..Grams.. 12/29/2025   
      
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