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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS11 KWNS 290058   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 290058=20   
   INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-290400-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2284   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0658 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   Areas affected...central Indiana...western Kentucky and   
   Tennessee...extreme southern Illinois   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 643...   
      
   Valid 290058Z - 290400Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 643 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...Areas of damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado remain   
   possible from central Indiana southwestward into the lower Ohio   
   Valley. Sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as far south as   
   western Tennessee.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues to move rapidly east   
   coincident with the cold front, with indications of QLCS storm mode   
   at times. Convective trends may be dwindling across the far northern   
   areas, as the line encounters a relatively cooler boundary layer.   
   Farther south toward the OH River and toward western KY and TN,   
   temperatures remain in the 70s F with lower 60s F dewpoints. This is   
   generally resulting in MLCAPE values of a few hundred J/kg. However,   
   little instability is needed to persist the damaging wind threat as   
   the line is strongly forced and with 50 kt around 1 km AGL.   
   Low-level SRH is also strong with 0-1 km values to 400 m2/s2.   
      
   Given the loss of heating and rapidly moving cold front, the severe   
   storms risk is expected to last a few hours until the line pushes   
   through the narrow instability axis. In the near term, the greatest   
   risk areas continues to be within the tornado watch extending from   
   central IN into western KY, and the watch may be locally extended in   
   time or space as conditions warrant.   
      
   ..Jewell.. 12/29/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!4pGLbZ9zuQizd7RUhIkypiX9fh1RvZj3AK9HOT6aAjfSN6RQTNE85zM-5bmX9pyq9bKduuNlE=   
   h_LPaHm5QeoO1L5n8g$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...   
      
   LAT...LON   36048994 37408883 38448738 39798622 40208580 40198535   
               39688521 38788545 37978603 36698737 35938842 35718910   
               35708968 35888995 36048994=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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