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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FOUS30 KWBC 290017   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   717 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Mon Dec 29 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...   
      
   01Z Update: Despite a strong WAA regime ahead of a bombing surface   
   cyclone over the central Midwest, appreciable instability is still   
   lacking and has subdued rates towards 0.5-0.75"/hr over the past   
   several hours, limiting the flash flood threat as a whole. Some   
   areas have seen 1-2" over 3-hr spans which was enough to cause some   
   minor flooding due to frozen grounds promoting run off. In any   
   case, the trend over the past several runs of the CAMs has backed   
   off on the threat for significant rains across the immediate lake   
   shores with the threat actually maintaining a progressive motion   
   through the remainder of the period. Cold frontal progression   
   through the Ohio Valley will advance rapidly promoting some heavier   
   rainfall along the front itself, but the setup will yield a low-end   
   potential for flash flood concerns just due to the nature of the   
   progressive forward motions.=20   
      
   Considering the above, the SLGT was removed with a broad MRGL   
   maintained from far southeastern MI through the immediate confines   
   around the eastern Great Lakes.=20   
      
   Kleebauer   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Wegman/Kleebauer   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025 - 12Z Wed Dec 31 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Wegman/Kleebauer   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_HmuW7iL_PJ0oJBTkYyY9pFmFx27qgk8gOrmsYd78wZE=   
   Ds1SsVDGP2LnLAqYd3oiovyhY5Q1nyi3P4kZ2E1730zJUyE$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_HmuW7iL_PJ0oJBTkYyY9pFmFx27qgk8gOrmsYd78wZE=   
   Ds1SsVDGP2LnLAqYd3oiovyhY5Q1nyi3P4kZ2E17Xh7ZCmM$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_HmuW7iL_PJ0oJBTkYyY9pFmFx27qgk8gOrmsYd78wZE=   
   Ds1SsVDGP2LnLAqYd3oiovyhY5Q1nyi3P4kZ2E172PvO48g$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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