TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168059.weather@1:2320/105 2db96c68   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 282149   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 282149=20   
   INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-282315-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2282   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0349 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Extreme southeast Missouri...southern and eastern   
   Illinois...and western Indiana   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 643...   
      
   Valid 282149Z - 282315Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 643 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...The threat for occasional damaging gusts and tornadoes   
   with embedded circulations will continue as storms consolidate and   
   spread eastward across Illinois toward Indiana.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a line of thunderstorms has   
   consolidated along the cold front moving quickly eastward across   
   Illinois.  A corridor of weak buoyancy precedes the front, where   
   surface temperatures peaked in the mid 60s to lower 70s, in the   
   presence of lower 60s dewpoints.  Recent observations from KILX   
   revealed a tornadic debris signature southeast-through-east of   
   Decatur, IL, with a circulation embedded in the line.  Additional   
   tornadoes will be possible given the long, low-level hodographs and   
   substantial (200-300 m2/s2) SRH in the storm inflow, within a   
   sufficiently moist and weakly unstable pre-storm environment.   
      
   Additional storm development is expected farther south along the   
   front toward extreme southeast MO and southern IL over the next 1-2   
   hours.  Though the loss of surface heating will result in a gradual   
   reduction in buoyancy with eastward extent, strong wind profiles   
   will help maintain the potential for a few tornadoes and damaging   
   gusts into late evening.   
      
   ..Thompson.. 12/28/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!5Juvwo0FowmPhpp3Pk_5q8J35uN69LG2tN6gZxmJ3Z617eMTZ48AIJ3lQpONWAfL99paPmfvP=   
   45CWq_JkxkWT3oTmKA$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...   
      
   LAT...LON   40498806 41168761 41238685 40968628 39858691 38848759   
               37878829 37198907 37038965 37149002 37898975 39228889   
               40498806=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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