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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 281918   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 281918=20   
   INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-282115-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2281   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0118 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Far eastern Missouri...central and southern   
   Illinois...and western Indiana   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20   
      
   Valid 281918Z - 282115Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A band of storms is expected to form along the cold front   
   by mid afternoon in Illinois and spread eastward through late   
   evening into Indiana.  Occasional wind damage and a couple of   
   tornadoes will be the main threats, and a watch is possible by   
   20-21z.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A surface cyclone is in the early stages of deepening   
   along a baroclinic zone across northern IL, downstream from an   
   amplifying midlevel trough and associated 100+ kt midlevel jet.=20   
   Within the warm sector of the cyclone, visible satellite imagery   
   shows some cloud breaks from MO into central IL, where surface   
   temperatures have warmed to 68+ F with dewpoints in the low 60s.=20   
   Surface-based CAPE has increased to 500-1000 J/kg as convective   
   inhibition weakens immediately ahead of the front.  Shallow   
   convection is ongoing in the zone of ascent along the front, and the   
   threat for thunderstorms will increase through late afternoon as the   
   front interacts with the moist/weakly unstable boundary layer into   
   IL.   
      
   Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favor supercells.  Still,   
   relatively weak buoyancy, linear forcing for ascent and fairly fast   
   frontal movement favor a more linear storm mode tied closely to the   
   frontal circulation.  Thus, a mixed convective mode is probable,   
   with damaging gusts the main threat given roughly 50 kt flow in the   
   lowest 1-2 km above ground level.  A couple of tornadoes may also   
   occur with any sustained supercells and/or embedded circulations   
   within line segments.  A watch may need to be considered by 20-21z.   
      
   ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/28/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!5KVJ_7w_RBwKx-5veHAywKVwnBYou8SOxTgUsbH4PdEli6dIIKbOe-17J3IH5sAccD9PYaLET=   
   ZPVkbbN6CdgsY6q3qQ$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...   
      
   LAT...LON   38998743 37448896 37519006 38929046 39679034 40678945   
               41028902 41118844 41258684 41068649 40188648 38998743=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
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