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   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   145 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sun Dec 28 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR A PORTION OF   
   WESTERN NEW YORK...   
      
   ...Midwest...   
   16Z Update...Maintaining the Marginal Risk   
      
   Rapidly developing low pressure is now into NW Illinois with a   
   pronounced warm front nudging into the southern Chicago metro area.   
   Ample moisture is south of the front where dewpoints are 60F with   
   instability and thunderstorms producing up to 1"/hr rates. The low   
   center will track into MI by 21Z today.   
   12Z CAMs have come in too far north with this axis, but repeating   
   thunderstorms south of Chicago across far northern Indiana and   
   southern Michigan warrants maintenance of the Marginal Risk for   
   this afternoon. The cold front then sweeps through this evening   
   with the potential for an additional half inch which may be a   
   problem should flooding develop this afternoon.   
      
      
   ...Western/Northern New York...   
   16Z Update...Maintaining the Slight Risk while expanding the   
   Marginal Risk east to the Tug Hill Plateau.   
      
   Warm air advection ahead of a rapidly deepening low currently over   
   northern Illinois will continue to expand over western New York   
   this afternoon. A pronounced warm front will lift over western New   
   York early this evening which will bring 50F+ dewpoints across   
   areas west of the Finger Lakes until the cold front sweeps through   
   late tonight. These several hours of over 50F dewpoints will cause   
   considerable melt to the Chautauqua Ridge snowpack which includes   
   around 2" SWE. The good news for areas south of Buffalo is that 12Z   
   CAM guidance has shifted the heavy rain axis a bit farther north   
   for this evening which should result in less rainfall over the   
   melting snow than previously forecast. However, this rainfall axis   
   should feature 0.5"/hr rates tonight and a risk for 1.5" in three   
   hours. This heavy rain threat will encompass Lake Ontario which   
   warrants expansion of the Marginal Risk farther east despite the   
   fact that it'll be a cold rain and should not cause much snow melt   
   in the Tug Hill area.   
      
   The strong cold front from the intense low sweeps through western   
   NY late tonight. Heavy rain/thunderstorms with should accompany   
   the progressive front and bring up to an additional half inch of   
   rain which could potentially cause further overnight flooding   
   concerns before it all quickly freezes and lake effect snow occurs   
   Monday.   
      
      
   Jackson   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Wegman/Kleebauer   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025 - 12Z Wed Dec 31 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Wegman/Kleebauer   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!69jm7VJCILHPi8iJHIUE-3v6QXihql5DoxLEoND0QgdY=   
   eKx2sW-FpsyP7GwMhEHj7fCRQMhB0VxFCRWdV9KZnESCO4k$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!69jm7VJCILHPi8iJHIUE-3v6QXihql5DoxLEoND0QgdY=   
   eKx2sW-FpsyP7GwMhEHj7fCRQMhB0VxFCRWdV9KZuIkhhDo$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!69jm7VJCILHPi8iJHIUE-3v6QXihql5DoxLEoND0QgdY=   
   eKx2sW-FpsyP7GwMhEHj7fCRQMhB0VxFCRWdV9KZZb-JjK0$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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