TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168051.weather@1:2320/105 2db9415a   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 281845   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 281844   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1244 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z   
      
   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the   
   U.S. for Tuesday through Tuesday night.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models indicate that the center of a broad and still deepening   
   cyclone will migrate north-northwest of the St. Lawrence Valley,   
   toward the southern Hudson Bay vicinity through this period.  At   
   mid-levels, it appears that the broadening circulation will be   
   reinforced by a vigorous short wave perturbation digging from the   
   higher latitudes.  Surrounding this low, cyclonic flow will likely   
   encompass most areas east of the Rockies through the offshore   
   western Atlantic, with some further amplification across the Gulf   
   Basin into the Caribbean and Bahamas.  Beneath this regime, cool   
   surface ridging entrenched across much of the southern Great Plains,   
   Gulf Coast and Gulf Basin is forecast to only slowly begin to   
   weaken.   
      
   Upstream, a cyclonic circulation over the subtropical eastern   
   Pacific may gradually begin to consolidate in advance of more   
   notable short wave troughing digging across the mid-latitude eastern   
   Pacific.  However, a substantive northeastward acceleration of the   
   low toward the California coast appears unlikely through at least   
   early Wednesday, and mid-level ridging will generally be maintained   
   across much of the interior West.  While lower/mid-tropospheric   
   moisture return emanating from the lower latitude eastern Pacific   
   may overspread portions of the Southwest into Great Basin, it is   
   still not clear that this will yield sufficient destabilization to   
   support convection capable of producing lightning (although NAM   
   forecast soundings around the Las Vegas, NV vicinity late Tuesday   
   evening/overnight suggest that this might not be completely out of   
   the question).   
      
   ..Kerr.. 12/28/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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