TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168048.weather@1:2320/105 2db92d4d   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS02 KWNS 281720   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 281718   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1118 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Aside from parts of the lower Rio Grande Valley, the risk for   
   thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday   
   through Monday night.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Within one branch of westerlies emanating from the northern   
   mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate that broad mid-level ridging   
   will be maintained across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest   
   through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent   
   Prairies/Great Plains through this period.  Downstream troughing may   
   undergo further amplification as a surface cold intrusion progresses   
   south/southeastward through the Gulf Basin.  However, the primary   
   embedded short wave perturbation is forecast to rapidly pivot east   
   and northeast of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley toward the   
   Canadian Maritimes and northwestern Atlantic Monday through Monday   
   night.  While the center of an associated broad, slowly deepening   
   and occluding surface cyclone shifts east-northeast of Lake   
   Huron/Georgian Bay through southern Quebec, it appears a secondary   
   surface low may develop across northern New England into the lower   
   St. Lawrence Valley.  In its wake, the trailing cold front is   
   forecast to rapidly advance east/southeast of the Appalachians, and   
   well offshore of much of the Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Tuesday.   
      
   ....Lower Great Lakes into New England...   
   NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate that   
   lower/mid-tropospheric warming and moistening, preceding the   
   secondary surface frontal wave development, will contribute to weak   
   elevated destabilization across portions of eastern New York state   
   through New England during the day Monday.  This may contribute to   
   deeper convective development embedded within an evolving broader   
   precipitation shield.  The extent to which this could become capable   
   of producing lightning remains a bit unclear, but probabilities for   
   weak thunderstorms still seem best characterized as less than 10   
   percent.   
      
   ...Lower Rio Grande Valley...   
   NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, and other model output,   
   suggest that widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible   
   along or just behind the cold front as it advances across Deep South   
   Texas late tonight.  Timing of the frontal passage and associated   
   convection through the lower Rio Grande around Brownsville remains   
   uncertain, but low thunderstorm probabilities may linger an hour or   
   two beyond 12Z Monday.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 12/28/2025   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14   
   SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/10 20 30   
   SEEN-BY: 220/70 90 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110   
   SEEN-BY: 229/134 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 267/800 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 770/1 100 340 350 772/210 220   
   SEEN-BY: 772/230 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426