TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168047.weather@1:2320/105 2db9251b   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 281645   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 281644=20   
   INZ000-ILZ000-281845-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2279   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1044 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 281644Z - 281845Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...The threat for isolated hail (near 1 inch diameter) and   
   wind damage will persist through about 19z across northeast Illinois   
   into northwest Indiana.  A watch appears unlikely.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A slightly elevated storm cluster with some supercell   
   characteristics, and a history of 1 inch hail and some wind damage,   
   continues to move east-northeastward at 50-55 kt across southern   
   Livingston and northern Ford Cos. IL.  This storm cluster is   
   tracking near the surface warm front, and appears to be associated   
   with a subtle/embedded speed max approaching central/northern IL.=20   
   Modified short-term forecast soundings suggest the updrafts are   
   rooted slightly above the surface near the warm front with surface   
   temperatures in the low 60s, while somewhat larger surface-based   
   CAPE is confined to areas a bit farther south with temperatures in   
   the mid 60s.  Long hodographs/strong vertical shear will continue to   
   support organized/supercell structures before the storms outpace the   
   somewhat greater buoyancy in IL, but the overall hail/wind threat   
   should be limited by rather poor low-midlevel lapse rates.  As such,   
   a watch remains unlikely in the short term.   
      
   ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/28/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!9-9b1G3BqhpXUF7tgWXUYAfGEwoQJRys3EaD-eV-gPd4qzf5klW4b4IylYVOA8051iiLC6ruk=   
   yUfwC-itmHrSUZTntI$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...   
      
   LAT...LON   40928665 40768790 40788812 41018835 41188827 41478784   
               41598736 41758682 41688642 41228631 40928665=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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