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   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1100 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sun Dec 28 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR A PORTION OF=20   
   WESTERN NEW YORK...   
      
   ...Midwest...   
   16Z Update...Maintaining the Marginal Risk   
      
   Rapidly developing low pressure is now into NW Illinois with a   
   pronounced warm front nudging into the southern Chicago metro area.   
   Ample moisture is south of the front where dewpoints are 60F with   
   instability and thunderstorms producing up to 1"/hr rates. The low   
   center will track into MI by 21Z today.   
   12Z CAMs have come in too far north with this axis, but repeating=20   
   thunderstorms south of Chicago across far northern Indiana and=20   
   southern Michigan warrants maintenance of the Marginal Risk for=20   
   this afternoon. The cold front then sweeps through this evening=20   
   with the potential for an additional half inch which may be a=20   
   problem should flooding develop this afternoon.   
      
      
   ...Western/Northern New York...   
   16Z Update...Maintaining the Slight Risk while expanding the   
   Marginal Risk east to the Tug Hill Plateau.   
      
   Warm air advection ahead of a rapidly deepening low currently over   
   northern Illinois will continue to expand over western New York=20   
   this afternoon. A pronounced warm front will lift over western New=20   
   York early this evening which will bring 50F+ dewpoints across=20   
   areas west of the Finger Lakes until the cold front sweeps through=20   
   late tonight. These several hours of over 50F dewpoints will cause=20   
   considerable melt to the Chautauqua Ridge snowpack which includes=20   
   around 2" SWE. The good news for areas south of Buffalo is that 12Z   
   CAM guidance has shifted the heavy rain axis a bit farther north=20   
   for this evening which should result in less rainfall over the=20   
   melting snow than previously forecast. However, this rainfall axis   
   should feature 0.5"/hr rates tonight and a risk for 1.5" in three   
   hours. This heavy rain threat will encompass Lake Ontario which=20   
   warrants expansion of the Marginal Risk farther east despite the=20   
   fact that it'll be a cold rain and should not cause much snow melt=20   
   in the Tug Hill area.   
      
   The strong cold front from the intense low sweeps through western   
   NY late tonight. Heavy rain/thunderstorms with should accompany=20   
   the progressive front and bring up to an additional half inch of   
   rain which could potentially cause further overnight flooding=20   
   concerns before it all quickly freezes and lake effect snow occurs=20   
   Monday.   
      
      
   Jackson   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025 - 12Z Wed Dec 31 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Wegman   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6N2mT774qLe4hbCXwQXDo6ZAUUI1PEfJyl6FSA_aqtwR=   
   oFdkIGmn_3iuacoE6wrd6f3I9CYl3av7mWy6OP4Ju6-GIvE$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6N2mT774qLe4hbCXwQXDo6ZAUUI1PEfJyl6FSA_aqtwR=   
   oFdkIGmn_3iuacoE6wrd6f3I9CYl3av7mWy6OP4JDKW1cho$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6N2mT774qLe4hbCXwQXDo6ZAUUI1PEfJyl6FSA_aqtwR=   
   oFdkIGmn_3iuacoE6wrd6f3I9CYl3av7mWy6OP4JqgGQUSQ$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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