TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168040.weather@1:2320/105 2db8f450   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 281317   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 281316=20   
   ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-281515-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2277   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0716 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Northeastern Missouri into central Illinois   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 281316Z - 281515Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Isolated, small to marginally severe hail may accompany   
   the stronger storms that evolve this morning.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Along the northern periphery of the evolving warm   
   sector and ahead of a developing surface low over eastern KS, a   
   broad plume of low-level warm advection will continue shifting   
   eastward while supporting isolated to widely scattered elevated   
   thunderstorms from northeastern MO into central IL this morning.   
   Here, an influx of steeper midlevel lapse rates from the southwest   
   (see TOP 12Z sounding) and modest low-level moistening amid a   
   relatively cool boundary layer will contribute to increasing (albeit   
   weak) elevated buoyancy (around 500-800 J/kg MUCAPE). This, combined   
   with around 40-50 kt of effective shear may promote a couple loosely   
   organized elevated storms -- posing a risk of small to marginally   
   severe hail and possibly locally strong gusts through the morning   
   hours. The overall severe risk is expected to remain   
   isolated/transient along this corridor this morning, with the   
   greater severe risk expected farther south later today.   
      
   ..Weinman/Smith.. 12/28/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!8G4BGe19JKs2h-PHXjQH6ij8WQY-su8hqSwBEaSII9MLVtGx0b2CvgEmyv02MWPaD-Vs__0gY=   
   rZZ33HA9klNCtWQEkY$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...   
      
   LAT...LON   39659083 39479164 39549231 39829261 40219260 40419237   
               41198939 41258864 41058820 40778807 40438817 40198843   
               39908994 39659083=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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