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   ACUS01 KWNS 281302   
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   SPC AC 281300   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0700 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   Valid 281300Z - 291200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN   
   ILLINOIS TO INDIANA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over Illinois and   
   Indiana this afternoon through the evening.  Severe wind gusts   
   capable of wind damage and a couple of tornadoes are the primary   
   threats.   
      
   ...Mid MS Valley east through IN-OH-western PA...   
   Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low near the   
   MT/ND border with a trough into the central Rockies/Sangre de   
   Cristos.  This mid-level low will move into the central Great Lakes   
   by early Monday morning.  Strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (80 kt)   
   extending from the base of the trough through the lower MO Valley   
   and OH Valley will feature an intensifying 110-kt jet reaching the   
   MO-IL border this evening before further strengthening to 130 kt   
   over OH by the end of the period.   
      
   A surface low over eastern KS will deepen rapidly through tonight as   
   it moves to Lake Huron.  A frontal zone extending east-northeast   
   through the southern Great Lakes this morning will serve as the   
   northern edge of the moist sector.  A cold front initially over   
   KS-OK will surge south-east.  Southerly low-level flow across the   
   moist sector will maintain a fetch of seasonably high 58-62 deg F   
   dewpoints immediately ahead of the front/low.   
      
   A rain shield with embedded thunderstorms this morning from northern   
   MO into the southern Great Lakes could feature a stronger storm or   
   two through midday, but the primary severe risk will likely focus   
   this afternoon through tonight.  Model guidance indicates the cap   
   will erode near the evolving triple point and cold front by mid-late   
   afternoon.  Upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible across parts   
   of central into eastern IL with buoyancy tapering with east extent   
   across the OH Valley.  A southward-developing convective band is   
   forecast to evolve late this afternoon through the early evening.   
   Long hodographs and strong 2-3 km flow will favor a risk for severe   
   gusts with the more intense storms and surges with the maturing   
   band.  Models indicate the wind-damage threat may persist across the   
   OH Valley/southern Great Lakes tonight despite meager instability.   
   The tornado risk appears highest with cells that can develop near   
   the instability axis and mature before either destructive   
   interference of the larger-scale cold pool overwhelms cellular mode,   
   and/or this activity moves farther east into lessening instability.   
      
   ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/28/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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