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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   508 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Sun Dec 28 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   WESTERN NEW YORK...   
      
   ...New York...   
      
   The warm front associated with a rapidly deepening low that will   
   track from the central Plains to the northern mitten of Michigan   
   today will move into western New York later this morning. This warm   
   front will advect much warmer air behind it, to its south, which in   
   turn will change over any wintry precipitation ahead of it to   
   plain rain. Dynamics associated with the rapidly deepening low,   
   including well above normal amounts of atmospheric moisture, some   
   instability, and slow northward movement, will all allow rain,   
   heavy at times, to persist from when it starts later this morning   
   through into tonight, when the trailing cold front sweeps across   
   western New York, ending any warm precipitation, as much colder   
   Canadian air rushes in behind the cold front. This extended period   
   of warm rainfall will occur over a below-normal, but still fairly   
   robust snow pack at the higher elevations of the Southern Tier, to   
   the amount of 1-4 inches of snow water equivalent. Thus, the   
   combination of rain and snow melt should rapidly increase stream,   
   creek, and river levels across western New York. Thus, the flooding   
   threat has increased and a Slight Risk for portions of western New   
   York, generally west of Rochester and north of the PA State Line,   
   remains in place. Urban and small stream flooding look to be the   
   types of flooding that are most likely, but any flood-prone area   
   will be susceptible today and especially into tonight.   
      
   ...Midwest...   
      
   A Marginal Risk extends from northern Illinois across much of   
   southern Michigan. The warm front with embedded elevated convection   
   will persist through the entire day in the Marginal Risk area. The   
   cold front will swing west to east from late this afternoon in   
   Illinois to this evening across Michigan. This will effectively end   
   the flooding threat as much colder air turns any lingering   
   precipitation tonight over to snow, and the lakes help with   
   localized enhancement across western lower Michigan. Urban and   
   small stream flooding are possible in the Chicago area, Detroit,   
   and any smaller urbanized areas in between. Due to relatively dry   
   conditions across the Midwest prior to today, any instances of   
   flooding should be isolated.   
      
   The rain has already started out this early morning to the   
   southwest of the Marginal Risk area across portions of Missouri,   
   Iowa, and western Illinois. For these areas, even drier soils prior   
   to this storm should keep the flooding threat below the 5% Marginal   
   Risk threshold, but the area will be monitored for overperformance   
   and any potential need to extend the Marginal Risk south and west   
   for the morning into these areas.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025 - 12Z Wed Dec 31 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Wegman   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_LB9jWSAtP_4Fy2hMPfCMhonq7JBOHGaJVkSPBGl8-hR=   
   -VESDC-kK2z9ssQ-NnIL9_nqKZ3Z_HkNMSX_ZZRwLAXNAbs$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_LB9jWSAtP_4Fy2hMPfCMhonq7JBOHGaJVkSPBGl8-hR=   
   -VESDC-kK2z9ssQ-NnIL9_nqKZ3Z_HkNMSX_ZZRwP4Thvm4$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_LB9jWSAtP_4Fy2hMPfCMhonq7JBOHGaJVkSPBGl8-hR=   
   -VESDC-kK2z9ssQ-NnIL9_nqKZ3Z_HkNMSX_ZZRw0NqRbz0$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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